3PLs Navigated Market Volatility in 2025

US Logistics Industry Expanded Moderately Last Year

Port of Newark trucks
Trucks at the Port of Newark in New Jersey. (Kena Betancur/Bloomberg News)

Key Takeaways:Toggle View of Key Takeaways

  • The U.S. third-party logistics market rebounded in 2025 amid tariff volatility, as the freight recession eased and carrier capacity tightened.
  • Net 3PL revenue grew 5.1% to $138 billion and gross revenue rose 5% to $323.4 billion, led by international transportation management growth.
  • In 2026, fewer import swings, tighter truckload markets and a more favorable environment for spot-market pricing are expected.

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In 2025, the U.S. third-party logistics market experienced significant volatility amid uncertainty over tariffs and fluctuating trade agreements. This instability led to increased demand from shippers eager to boost their inventories before higher import tariffs took effect. On a positive economic note, the Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal, leading to the current global tariff rate stabilizing around 11%. While these tariffs still create an economic challenge, at least their predictability offers some clarity for importers.

The current tariff environment presents both risks and opportunities. As companies restructure their supply chains through nearshoring and reshoring, there is growing demand for third-party logistics services, especially on cross-border routes and in regions with increasing manufacturing investment. However, if tariffs ultimately reduce consumer purchasing power and hinder overall freight demand, it could stall the recovery trajectory.

Other factors in the macroeco­nomic environment include consumer sentiment, which is currently weak, but spending remains steady in the services and nondurable goods categories. However, rising gas ­prices, driven by the ongoing conflict with Iran, are likely to diminish consumers’ purchasing power as inflation continues to grow. This situation could lead to stagflation, characterized by slow economic growth and high inflation.

Overall, all indicators suggest that the freight recession, which began late in 2022, is coming to an end. Capacity from for-hire motor carriers has decreased significantly, primar­ily due to smaller carriers exiting the market. Throughout 2024 and 2025, the number of operating authority revocations has exceeded the number of new entries. This trend has been driven by declining demand and rates following the highs seen in 2021 and 2022 after the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather than experiencing a rebound in demand, we are witnessing a reduction in capacity. Stricter monitoring through the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s drug and alcohol clearinghouse, along with more rigorous screening for commercial driver licenses, has also worsened the ongoing driver shortage and limited the availability of new carrier capacity. Unlike in previous economic cycles, carrier capacity cannot quickly re-enter the market even as rates begin to improve.



Truckload spot market rates and tender rejections are on the rise, with flatbed truckload being the tightest market, driven by artificial intelligence data center construction and infrastructure spending.

In warehousing, vacancy rates are stabilizing, rent growth is slowing and tenant requirements are changing due to tariff-related adjustments in supply chains. Following the extraordinary tightness of the market from 2021 to 2022, the market has been gradually rebalancing. Despite overall economic uncertainty, demand for warehouse space has been even-keeled. There has been a surge in demand for big-box facilities exceeding 500,000 square feet, fueled by e-commerce third-party logistics providers, manufacturers and, increasingly, data center tenants vying for the same industrial land.

According to recent estimates from , the net revenues of the U.S. third-party logistics market grew 5.1% in 2025, reaching $138 billion. This follows a modest 1.8% increase in 2024. Additionally, gross revenues across all segments of the 3PL market experienced a year-over-year increase of 5%, which is significantly higher than the 2.8% growth seen in 2024. As a result, the total value of the U.S. 3PL market is estimated to be $323.4 billion in 2025.

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Evan Armstrong

Armstrong

Since A&A began developing 3PL market size estimates in 1994, 2021 saw the highest year-over-year growth at 48.1%, while 2000 recorded the second-highest growth at 22.9% and 2010 ranked third at 19%.

The third-party logistics market in the United States consists of four segments: dedicated contract carriage, value-added warehousing and distribution, international transportation management and domestic transportation management. Numerous 3PL providers offer services across multiple segments.

International Transportation Management

International transportation management was the fastest-growing segment in 2025, achieving 7.7% gross revenue growth to reach $85.9 billion. Net revenue grew 11% to $30.4 billion, resulting in a gross profit margin of 35.4%. This growth followed a 7.9% increase in gross revenue and a 2.1% decrease in net revenue in 2024. ITM includes services such as air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage and compliance, warehousing and inland transportation.

The growth in the ITM segment can be attributed to concerns about tariffs and trade wars. Importers have been eager to receive their goods before anticipated tariff increases, along with shipping uncertainties in the Red Sea and a decrease in ocean traffic through the Suez Canal. With the removal of IEEPA tariffs and stabilization at the current levels, there should be less uncertainty for shippers in 2026, leading to fewer peaks and valleys in imports. Consequently, forwarder compliance departments are expected to be less busy. However, with Trump’s ongoing threats of sectoral tariffs to replace the current temporary and past unlawful IEEPA tariffs, the future remains slightly ­uncertain.

Global airfreight capacity remains tight due to these factors. Corridor-­specific constraints continue to create localized tightness and reduced flexibility on key trade lanes. Volatility makes demand patterns unpredictable, leading to increased capacity constraints. Freight forwarders are making operational and strategic adjustments in response to changing market conditions. They are diversifying their carrier mix and routing options and establishing redundancy by securing multiple car­rier contracts and exploring alternative trade lanes to mitigate risks, such as rerouting around the Red Sea.

To assist customers in shifting their sourcing from China to other countries such as Mexico, Vietnam and India, freight forwarders are rapidly expanding their networks in these new origin countries. They are implementing control tower models to centralize shipment visibility across various modes and carriers, creating real-time dashboards for proactive exception management rather than simply reacting to issues as they arise.

The digitalization of ITM 3PLs continues to separate freight forwarders that have embraced and can afford to invest in technology from those still reliant on manual processes. Approximately half of freight forwarders have automated documentation, compliance and invoicing workflows. Large forwarders are gaining a competitive advantage from new technologies, while many small forwarders are falling behind.

The two largest U.S.-based global ITM 3PLs by revenue painted very different pictures in 2025. While Expeditors International of Washington grew 4.4% in gross revenue to $11.1 billion and 7.4% in net revenue to $3.7 billion, C.H. Robinson’s Global Forwarding gross revenue dropped 18.8% to $3.1 billion and net revenue fell 7.6% to $741.9 million. C.H. Robinson saw a drop in annual international freight forwarding volumes, with ocean volume down 8.8% to 1,256,000 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) and air volume down 9.7% to 280,000 metric tons. Expeditors’ volumes were up in both categories. In turn, C.H. Robinson continues to dominate domestic transportation management in North America and maintains its status as the largest freight broker by $4.2 billion in gross revenue.

Denmark-based Scan Global Logistics, an asset-light air and ocean international freight forwarder and 3PL, is present in more than 55 countries across all continents, with over 4,600 staff in 190 offices. The company has been expanding its presence in the Americas, which accounts for 30% of its gross revenue, up from 23% in 2024. Its Americas regional revenue grew 47.1% over 2025 to $850 million, with 877 employees, 75% of whom are based in the United States. Air & Ocean is its largest business segment, accounting for 87% of its gross profit. In 2025, the SGL Group handled 212,000 airfreight metric tons (+6%) and 691,000 ocean freight TEUs (+25.6%).

AIT Worldwide Logistics is a global air and ocean freight forwarder and customs broker with distribution operations tied to its forwarding operations. AIT has grown organically and through multiple acquisitions over the years. Today, Chicago-based AIT has 150 locations covering North America, Europe and Asia. In 2025, its gross revenue was up 37% to $3.6 billion. Its annual air metric tons grew 61.1%, to 179,937, and ocean TEUs were down a mere 0.6%, to 105,982, from 2024.

Domestic Transportation Management

Domestic transportation management encompasses freight brokerage, managed transportation, intermodal transportation management and last-mile delivery. Its 2025 gross revenue grew 4.5% to $128.3 billion, while net revenue increased 3% to $19.6 billion. However, the overall gross profit margin slightly declined to 15.3%. Last year’s growth followed a 0.7% decrease in gross revenue and a 2.8% drop in net revenue in 2024, a year characterized by the freight recession.

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Logistics market segments chart 2025

Freight brokerage, the largest subsegment of the DTM industry accounting for 83% of DTM revenue, experienced margin compression in the spot market and a decline in transactional volume from 2023 to 2025. This was primarily due to excess carrier capacity, which suppressed spot rates, allowing shippers to leverage their pricing power. DTMs with more contractual compared to spot-market business tended to grow faster and be more profitable.

As we enter 2026, the market is showing early signs of change. Spot rates are significantly higher year over year, tender rejections are up and negative revenue contracted truckloads are on the rise, which will trigger contractual rate negotiations. The exit of smaller carriers from the market is a positive tailwind, and 2026 is expected to be a much more favorable environment for spot-market pricing than 2023 to 2025.

The true leaders in DTM are the 3PLs with strong carrier management skills that have innovated technologically. This allows them to efficiently tap long-standing carrier relationships to cover shipper demand rather than being overly reliant on load boards to buy capacity at spot-market rates.

The digitalization of transactional truckload DTM/freight brokerage continues rapidly as more 3PLs have built interfaces to large shippers’ transportation management systems for truckload spot-market rate quoting and automated load tendering and booking. A couple dozen 3PLs use these TMS interfaces to provide shippers with instant spot-rate quotes and the ability to receive tenders and book loads systematically. This process automates part of the traditional spot-market freight brokerage account management function, increasing shippers’ use of spot pricing rather than contract pricing.

Account management automation for spot-market truckloads is happening in conjunction with the automation of carrier sales (procurement) functions within freight brokers, ­using carrier capacity management systems to digitally match shippers’ loads to carriers based on ­historical and real-time carrier capacity data analyzed by machine learning/­artificial intelligence algorithms. This digital freight matching capability has become a competitive differentiator within the DTM segment as these 3PLs look to increase the number of loads/shipments they manage per person per day and revenue per person per year. It can also build carrier loyalty by reusing high-performing core carriers at rates below spot-­market rates offered on load boards. In addition, agentic AI bots are now answering phone calls from carriers and drivers and making collection calls for freight brokers, lowering costs and increasing efficiency.

TransLoop registered the highest year-over-year growth in gross revenue among all freight brokers in 2025, rising 46.6% from 2024 to $255 million. This growth allowed TransLoop to scale 15 spots on this year’s list to No. 71.

Founded in 2019 by current CEO Nick Reasoner, TransLoop is a newer non-asset, Chicago-based freight brokerage. It has a heavy focus on technology innovation, with AI-­powered features that provide real-time track-and-trace, instant messaging, automatic notifications and centralized data organization. Besides food and groceries, other industries it serves include automotive, bulk commodities and hazardous goods.

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RXO trucks parked

RXO moved into the top five on this year's list of the Top Freight Brokerage Firms in North America. (RXO)

RXO, the spinoff of less-than-­truckload carrier XPO Logistics’ 3PL business, saw the second-­highest year-over-year growth in freight brokerage revenue, climbing 39.5% in gross revenue to $4.2 billion and 34.4% in net revenue to $563 million. RXO benefited from its acquisition of fellow freight broker Coyote Logistics, which it purchased from UPS for $1.025 billion in September 2024. The deal enhanced RXO’s market position, diversified and expanded its customer base and broadened its carrier network. It is now a top five freight broker. Although its business focus is on freight brokerage, RXO’s service capabilities encompass all four 3PL market segments.

Another 3PL benefiting from mergers and acquisitions in the DTM 3PL space is Logistics Plus. Based in Erie, Pa., Logistics Plus is a provider of DTM, ITM, warehousing and fulfillment, technology and supply chain solutions, operating as both a 3PL and a fourth-party logistics/lead logistics provider. Its September 2025 acquisition of Chicago-based freight brokerage LoadDelivered helped grow its gross revenue by 29.6% to $385 million, enabling it to jump from 66th to 48th place and become a top 50 freight broker.

Value-Added Warehousing and Distribution

Value-added warehousing and distribution was the third best-performing segment in 2025, growing 4.4% to $72.7 billion in gross revenue. VAWD is the largest 3PL segment by net revenue, which rose by 4.4% to $56.1 billion. While the freight recession had a significant impact on ITM and DTM from 2023 to 2025, VAWD demonstrated steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 4%.

The tariffs on Chinese, Canadian and Mexican imports have accelerated nearshoring and friend-­shoring initiatives, with manufacturers and retailers building buffer stock to hedge against potential tariff escalation or supply disruption. This is driving demand for warehousing in non-traditional inland markets and near emerging manufacturing corridors in the Southeast and Midwest. VAWD providers with flexible capa­city and the ability to offer value-­added services — including kitting, light assembly, postponement manufacturing and e-commerce fulfillment — are particularly well-­positioned to capture this demand.

Labor availability and automation investment remain central operational challenges for the VAWD segment. Warehouse labor markets have loosened somewhat from the extreme tightness of 2021-22. Still, wage rates have largely plateaued at elevated levels rather than declining, compressing margins for operators with contracts priced under earlier cost assumptions. In response, VAWD providers are accelerating investment in warehouse automation — including autonomous mobile robots, goods-to-person systems and AI-driven warehouse management platforms — to improve throughput and reduce per-unit labor costs. The convergence of tariff-driven inventory builds, e-­commerce growth and labor cost pressure is creating a structural tailwind for VAWD providers that can deliver technology-enabled, flexible warehousing solutions at scale.

Southfield, Mich.-based Thyssenkrupp Supply Chain Solutions, the 3PL arm of Thyssenkrupp Materials, a Thyssenkrupp AG subsidiary, provides VAWD, dedicated contract carriage and DTM services to the automotive, renewable energy, commercial construction, heavy indus­trial, e-commerce and manufacturing industries. The company has been aggressively expanding its warehouse footprint in the United States. Its North American warehousing space grew 40% year over year and now covers 21 million square feet in 92 warehouses across the U.S. and one in Canada. As a leader in renewable energy logistics in North America, nearly half of its warehousing space, or 10 million square feet, is used in storing lithium-ion batteries, solar modules, torque tubes, wind turbine parts and electric vehicle charging stations. This space is operated exclusively with Thyssenkrupp’s proprietary warehouse management system and company-trained personnel who provide quality inspection and testing services. Its customers include major EV OEMs, solar module manufacturers and some of the largest utility companies in North America and Europe.

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Arvato warehouse in Louisville

An Arvato facility in Louisville, Ky. (Arvato)

Germany-based Arvato ex­panded its North American warehousing footprint by 48% over 2024, to 7.4 million square feet across 19 warehouses. Globally, Arvato has 104 logistics sites covering over 35.5 million square feet across 17 countries. The company partners with major technology providers such as Microsoft, AutoStore and Boston Dynamics to deliver customized supply chain solutions tailored to clients’ needs. As a technology-driven supply chain manager with an e-commerce warehousing and fulfillment focus, Arvato serves many well-known global brands in several industries, including fashion, beauty and lifestyle, high-tech, telecommunications, automotive and healthcare.

Kenco, an established North American company, is a large, diverse 3PL in the United States. Founded in 1950, Kenco provides integrated logistics solutions, including distribution and fulfillment, transportation management, material handling services, real estate brokerage and automotive logistics. Value-added services offered by Kenco include kitting, service parts packaging and distribution, sequencing, display assembly, reverse logistics, white-glove delivery and custom IT solutions. Kenco services customers in the appliance/furniture, pharmaceutical, medical equipment, food and beverage, building materials, industrial manufacturing, apparel and con­sumer packaged goods industries.

Its warehousing footprint increased 24.7% year over year. Kenco now has 45.9 million square feet of space in 140 warehouses, 134 in the U.S. and six in Canada.

Dedicated Contract Carriage

The asset-heavy dedicated contract carriage 3PL market segment had the lowest year-over-year gross revenue growth, up 1.6% to $32 billion. Unlike ITM and DTM, DCC continued to grow during the freight recession due to demand from shippers seeking to lock in capacity after a turbulent 2021-22, increased ability to attract drivers through wage increases and better recruiting and ample capital to invest in equipment. Year-over-year net revenue growth increased 2.5% to $32 billion in 2025.

DCC has an advantage when truckload capacity increases due to softer demand and rates decline. Since traditional DCC contracts have one- to three-year terms and dedicate spe­cific trucking assets to customers, they are much “stick­ier” than standard shipper-carrier trucking contracts and less susceptible to declines in the truckload spot market.

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In addition to DCC 3PLs, DTM 3PLs offering dedicated trucking capacity during the freight recession also tended to see more growth than spot-market reliant freight brokerage competitors.

DCC trailer types are 80% dry vans, 11% reefers, 5% flatbeds and 2% each for tankers and other trailers. Sixty-four percent of the top 25 DCC providers have both dry vans and reefers; 60% also have flatbeds. Over a third of the top 25 have tankers. Other types of equipment include curtain sides, roller beds, end dumps, drop decks and dry van trailers with lift gates. Customer trailers/containers are often used primarily for retail operations.

While most of the top DCC 3PLs saw their revenues and fleet numbers drop or remain flat, Lazer Logistics and NFI grew the number of ­power units (tractors and trucks) in their DCC operations by 8.6% and 5.6%, respectively, in 2025. Covenant Logistics’ Dedicated segment revenue saw double-digit growth, up 10.6% to $403 million.

Smaller DCC 3PLs that saw substantial fleet growth include Miller Dedicated Services, up 22% to 255 power units; Keller Logistics Group, up 26.1% to 150 power units; and Bison Transport, up 20.8% to 145 ­power units, rounding out the top 50.

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