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Trucks on Interstate 15 in Phelan, Calif. (Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg News)

After withstanding a freight downturn that has persisted for nearly four years, third-party logistics providers have been eagerly awaiting a market rebound.

Many prominent 3PLs shared their views on the current state of the freight market and offered their thoughts on when the long-awaited recovery might arrive as part of Transport Topics’ 2026 Top 100 Logistics Companies survey.

A significant portion of the respondents expressed cautious optimism that freight market conditions will improve gradually as the year moves forward.

Several cited growing signs that excess freight hauling capacity has been exiting the freight market, bringing supply and demand closer to equilibrium.

An enduring market rebound will also hinge on freight volume growth, not reduced capacity alone, several participating 3PLs said.

The following comments are excerpts from survey responses from a broad range of 3PLs. Many were submitted prior to the onset of the U.S. military conflict with Iran, which has driven up diesel prices.

“The freight market recovery hinges on demand. The market will not be able to escape this cycle with capacity changes alone. Volume levels need to improve to give some pricing power and flexibility to carriers. I expect that to largely come from domestic manufacturing and general inventory replenishment, with construction and infrastructure to help later in the year or in 2027. … Shippers will be reminded that truckload freight is a cyclical market and will see higher costs. They can benefit by solidifying existing relationships now to better position themselves when the market is no longer in their favor.” — Fifth Wheel Freight

“The freight market remains in a prolonged rate recession driven by excess capacity, muted demand and disciplined shipper procurement. At Sage Freight, we continue to see strong pricing pressure alongside cautious volume growth. We expect rates to stabilize gradually with modest improvement later in the year.” — Sage Freight

See the 2026 Top 100 rankings

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►Top 100 3PLs Adapt to Market
►How AI Is Transforming Logistics
►Map: Where the Top 100 Are
►Armstrong: 3PLs Navigated Volatility in 2025
►Logistics Firms Embrace AI
►3PLs Hopeful for Market Recovery
►Tariffs Continue to Drive Volatility
►Logistics Results Mixed in 2025

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Sector Rankings
Freight Brokerage | Dedicated
Dry Storage Warehousing
Refrigerated Warehousing
Ocean Freight | Airfreight

“We are not looking at a demand surge, but we are seeing a meaningful tightening driven primarily by supply attrition meeting modest demand stabilization. Dedicated fleet expansion by large public carriers has structurally reduced flexible capacity in the open market. At the same time, carrier revocations continue to outpace new entrants, regulatory scrutiny is increasing, manufacturing has returned to expansion, tender rejections are rising, and the spread between spot and contract rates is narrowing. Individually, none of these indicators guarantees a durable recovery. Collectively, they suggest the prolonged rate recession is stabilizing and the market is entering an early rebalancing phase. … For the year ahead, we expect gradual rate firming rather than a sharp spike, with volume trends tied closely to incremental improvement in manufacturing, consumer replenishment, and import stability. A sustained recovery will require demand to build on this foundation. If demand accelerates while supply remains disciplined, tightening will become durable. If economic momentum stalls, rate gains could plateau. At this stage, the trajectory points toward normalization and measured recovery, not rapid expansion, with disciplined execution and strong carrier relationships determining who performs well as balance returns.” — RGL Logistics

“We are seeing supply-side contraction for sure. We have yet to see any significant changes on the demand side. The market seems to be recovering some as far as rates and margins are concerned, but we are attributing nearly all the lift in rates to DOT/FMCSA efforts to remove non-domicile and non-ELP drivers from the market. … We are bullish on the year overall. Depending on the recent actions against Iran and how long this lasts and disruptions to the supply side of fuel continue, rates could get back to 2022 levels in a hurry.” — Kingsgate Logistics

“We believe that the current freight market continues to struggle with an imbalance of overcapacity, where too many assets are chasing too little freight. … We are hopeful for a recovery in the second half of 2026. The primary factor will revolve around the continued rebalancing of capacity to demand.” — Total Distribution Solutions

“The freight market continues to face difficult conditions due to an imbalance between capacity and demand, along with economic disruptions such as tariff policies and shifts in driver availability and freight demand. While forecasting has been challenging over the past few years, we expect supply and demand to gradually rebalance and anticipate stronger rates and volumes in the second half of 2026.” — AJC Logistics

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Outside of a Buske Logistics warehouse. (Buske Logistics)

“Our business at Buske Logistics is resilient to market downturns, given our broader focus on food, beverage and [consumer packaged goods] products. We haven’t seen much of a decrease in volumes.” — Buske Logistics

“I’ve been in this business for 23 years, and I can say without exaggeration that the current state of the American economy in early 2026 is the most challenging I’ve ever witnessed. We aren’t just dealing with a standard cyclical dip; the duration and severity of this downturn have now surpassed both the length and depth of the Great Recession. For two years, we’ve been projecting a turnaround that has yet to fully materialize. While I remain confident that the market will eventually pivot, I’m dubious of ‘false bottom’ predictions. In this environment, anyone claiming a recovery is definitively here is likely to be proven wrong yet again. The only true indicators I’m watching for are sustained, consistent improvements in both freight volumes and rates.” — Rob Hooper Jr., CEO, Atlantic Logistics

“Now that we’re into the new year, we’re beginning to see positive shifts in this three-year downturn. We saw conditions improving in December, which have continued through January, normally one of the more difficult months of the year. As capacity tightens and prices increase, we’re optimistic about the rest of the year, especially as we approach spring, which typically brings a seasonal volume surge. The market is tightening and should continue to tighten throughout 2026.” — Echo Global Logistics

“We’ve held the same view since 2024: no dramatic recovery was coming. While others projected a sharp snapback, we expected small, incremental tightening each quarter as capacity continued to exit the market. That’s exactly what we’ve seen over the past 24 months — conditions improved for brokers and carriers, but only by a few basis points per quarter. … The freight recession isn’t ‘over’ in the sense of returning to 2021 pricing. It’s normalizing. The question is whether that normalization settles at today’s equilibrium or if demand shifts push us back into tightness or further looseness. Anyone projecting certainty either way isn’t paying attention to the demand signals — or lack thereof.” — Loadsmart

“We believe that the freight market will rebound in 2026 due to additional freight movement as consumers potentially increase their purchasing with tax refunds and due to a reduction in the amount of trucks being used to transport products.” — Miller Dedicated Services

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Breen

“The market seems to be entering a ‘transition’ phase. It’s still too early to feel in the early stages of the year, but as inventory replenishment starts to kick off, we’re planning on tighter capacity than ’25. The reliable carriers are seeking mid-single-digit rate increases and for the first time we are seeing some shippers accept rate increases in their [request for proposal] which signals that the changing market is closer than it’s ever been.” — Shannon Breen, CEO, FreightVana

“We are expecting a market recovery this year largely due to an overall decrease in market capacity. We are seeing strong volatility in Q1 and expect it to continue for some time.” — RWB Trucking

“The freight market remains in a prolonged downcycle, particularly in the spot market, with rates and volumes still below historical norms. Importantly, this downturn has lasted longer than typical cycles, which has pressured asset-light and spot-exposed carriers more severely than dedicated operators. For Transervice Logistics and Lily Transportation, the impact has been muted, given our focus on dedicated, contractual and managed transportation solutions.” — Transervice Logistics/Lily Transportation

“The freight market continues to operate in a prolonged period of rate compression following the pandemic-era surge. Excess capacity, cautious inventory strategies and muted consumer demand have combined to keep rates suppressed across many lanes. While volumes have stabilized compared to the lows of 2023-2024, they have not rebounded at a pace that would materially tighten capacity. … For the year ahead, we anticipate gradual improvement rather than a sharp recovery. Rate stabilization is likely before meaningful increases, with recovery dependent on industrial production growth, consumer demand resilience, inventory restocking cycles, capacity exits from smaller carriers, and interest rate reductions that improve access to capital. We expect modest volume growth in sectors tied to infrastructure, renewable energy and nearshoring initiatives. However, a full freight market recovery will likely require sustained economic expansion and further capacity rationalization.” — Thyssenkrupp

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A Thyssenkrupp Supply Chain Services tractor trailer. (Thyssenkrupp)

“Shippers in food and [consumer packaged goods] are running leaner inventories and adjusting order patterns more frequently, which puts a premium on cold chain partners who can flex up, flex down, and still hit service windows. Across our network, physical occupancy has stabilized, and customers are using their committed space more intentionally. What we’re seeing is less about freight ‘recession’ and more about variability — shorter planning cycles, faster resets and more routing decisions being made week to week.” — Americold

“The prolonged freight recession has taken a significant toll on many transportation and logistics companies across the industry. ... While it’s difficult to predict the exact timing of a recovery, I do believe the market will gradually begin to rebalance over the next year as supply and demand move back into alignment.” — Russell Thorp, vice president of sales, TA Dedicated

“Freight is still working through a prolonged rate reset, and what we are seeing is less of a sudden bottom and more of a slow grind toward balance. The overall market feels cautious with shippers staying disciplined on costs and carriers fighting for utilization. … The companies that will win in this environment are the ones building resilient operations now, so when the market does turn, they are ready to capture the upside without sacrificing safety or performance.” — Adam Newsome, CEO, Lazer Logistics

“At our company, we’re seeing continued downward pressure on both spot and contract rates, with many clients delaying shipments or consolidating cargo to cut costs. Looking ahead to 2026, we do not anticipate a meaningful recovery this year. High inventory levels in the U.S., soft consumer demand, and ongoing geopolitical risks (including potential tariff escalations) are likely to suppress volume growth. Meanwhile, new containership deliveries will keep capacity oversupply acute, further capping any rate rebound. Barring a sudden macroeconomic turnaround — which seems unlikely — we expect rates to remain depressed, and the market to stay buyer-dominated well into 2027.” — De Well Group