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Four Star Freightliner's Jay Morris, new truck manager, says because of the prolonged freight recession, customers have operated their trucks for much longer than normal. (Four Star Freightliner)

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The trucking industry’s anticipated pre-buy ahead of 2027 is taking a different shape as economic uncertainty, shifting regulations and tariffs cloud the market. While fleets still consider pulling forward equipment purchases, operating conditions are more complicated than they were at the start of the year and during past pre-buy periods.

“When uncertainty increases to the level it is at now, and it may grow further, people are increasingly likely to hit the pause button on investment decisions,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst for commercial vehicles at FTR Transportation Intelligence.

Much of the pre-buy speculation centered on four major regulations: the California Air Resources Board Low NOx Omnibus, CARB Advanced Clean Trucks, EPA 2027 low NOx standards and EPA Greenhouse Gas Phase 3. However, changes at the federal level are introducing doubt.

The Environmental Protection Agency has taken its first steps aimed at rescinding the Biden administration’s waivers granted for California’s Advanced Clean Trucks and Omnibus low nitrogen oxides rules and has said it will re-evaluate the GHG and NOx rules.

“Had the outcome of the election been different and the expectation remained that these regulations would move forward unchanged, we likely would have already seen a significant increase in pre-buy activity,” said Jody Pollard, senior vice president of truck and aftermarket sales for Rush Enterprises.

The addition of state-specific requirements this time around further complicates buying decisions.

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“In contrast to the 2007 to 2010 cycle, when a single nationwide regulation required uniform compliance, this time, fleets face a patchwork of four different regulations, each with unique requirements and implementation timelines,” he said.

At the same time, the economy isn’t performing as expected. Heading into the year, ACT Research President Kenny Vieth said there was an expectation that carriers could make more money in 2025 to allow them to pre-buy in 2026, but that isn’t the case.

“We’re not going to get as much economic activity, and we’re going to have more inflation, higher interest rates and all the negative things that go along with that,” he explained. “As a result, we have significantly reduced, almost to the point of nonexistence, a pre-buy in 2026 in the tractor market.”

RELATED: Traton CEO Sees EPA Pre-Buy Sales Slipping to 2026

Chris Thompson, vice president of sales for TEC Equipment, said it will be a big decision for fleets to determine if they want to roll the dice and wait for 2027 or find situations when they can replace some equipment now or downsize their fleet to weather the economic storm.

“I do think if you take a step back, despite some of the regulations, despite the tariffs, despite a lot of the headwinds that we’re experiencing as an industry, equipment is going to have to be replaced at certain levels, and some sort of pre-buy will eventually come,” Thompson said.

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TEC Equipment's Chris Thompson, vice president of sales, says it’s a big decision for some fleets as to whether to wait for 2027 to replace equipment or consider other options. (TEC Equipment)

Signs of Uncertainty

There were early signs in 2022, 2023 and 2024 of a pre-buy driven more by the ACT and Omnibus regulations rather than the 2027 EPA regulations, but Thompson said there wasn’t a “huge surge.”

Kyle Treadway, dealer principal at Kenworth Sales Co., saw some pre-buying in 2023 and 2024.

“It wasn’t across the board. Different fleets had different strategies, but we saw they were working well in advance to try and time their rotation,” he said.

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Class 8 truck and engine OEMs are on track to meet emission regulations but are staying flexible. (Kenworth Truck Co.)

Last summer, FTR began factoring in a modest overbuy or pre-buy in anticipation of 2026.

“This amounted to slightly more than 20,000 units above our forecast replacement demand and incremental demand from projected truck freight market growth,” Moyer said.

With the potential shifts in regulatory requirements, FTR has since removed its pre-buy forecast from its core baseline forecast but still includes it in reporting for its clients.

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“If the uncertainty and how things have been going in the past few months continues for very long, it is difficult to make capital investment decisions at scale,” Moyer said. “In today’s freight market, there are headwinds, whether that is tariffs, the economy or freight demand.”

The on-again, off-again status of tariffs is one of the unknowns that is paralyzing decision-making.

“The ping-pong effect is when we see that everything just stops because nobody wants to make a decision and have it be the wrong one,” Treadway said, adding that tariffs are dictating everything from inventory levels to pricing and cash flow.

Rush Enterprises’ Pollard told Transport Topics that tariffs could accelerate a pre-buy if fleets expect trucks to become significantly more expensive.

“Some fleets may choose to hold off on large purchases until costs stabilize, while others may work with their OEMs and dealers to lock in pricing and secure build slots before potential increases take effect,” he explained.

Many fleets are still dealing with the effects of a prolonged freight recession, which has depressed rates and squeezed margins.

“The freight recession has lasted for over three years, and customers are still dealing with very low margins,” said Jay Morrison, new truck manager at Four Star Freightliner. “Our customers have operated their trucks for much longer cycles than they normally would. They need to replace trucks now, but it is not a good business decision to do so.”

Plan of Action

Some of Kenworth Sales Co.’s larger fleet customers know they have to rotate their stock but are being conservative.

“They’re placing much smaller orders, but they’re doing what they absolutely have to,” Treadway said. “I think if there is going to be a pre-buy this time, it’s going to be not as large, and it’s going to be the last quarter of 2026.”

Thompson expects the industry to gain clarity as 2025 progresses.

“Across the next six months, we’ll start to see more indications about the direction of the overall market and industry,” he said.

Even if there is a willingness to pre-buy, it isn’t always possible.

“It’s hard to spend money you don’t have," Vieth noted. “You can go to credit markets, but borrowing is significantly more expensive nowadays, so it makes it difficult.”

In past cycles, strong economic conditions fueled robust pre-buys. “In 2005 and 2006, carrier profitability was at record levels, making it easy to pull forward demand ahead of 2007,” Vieth said.

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As fleets approached 2010 regulations, the global financial crisis suppressed pre-buy activity. “We can’t find any signs of pre-buying ahead of 2010,” Vieth said, adding that today’s landscape looks more like 2010 than 2006.

Publicly traded for-hire carriers had their worst profitability in 2024 since 2010. “We were tempering our expectations for pre-buy,” he said, “but our expectation was that the economy still had a nice headwind coming into 2025. It doesn’t at this point.”

While it’s just 18 months away, 2027 isn’t the immediate priority for many fleets. “They’re worried about the next 60 to 90 days of operating costs and keeping their trucking company or fleet in a healthy situation,” Thompson said.

Although fleets have pulled back on buying so far in 2025, there still is a chance that demand will materialize. Brian Antonellis, senior vice president of fleet operations for Fleet Advantage, said he expects to see demand increase later this year and throughout 2026.

“Fleets are still saying, ‘There’s enough uncertainty out there that we’re going to need to pre-buy,’” he said. “The timeline of the pre-buy is going to change, but the concept is still there.”

Staying Resilient

Class 8 truck and engine manufacturers said they are on track to meet upcoming emission regulations but are retaining the flexibility to adjust their rollout schedules if the Trump administration carries out proposed rollbacks. However, several in the industry said they believe OEMs still may move forward with their planned rollouts even if regulatory requirements change given the significant investments they have made.

RELATED: Diesel OEMs Working to Meet 2027 EPA Standards

“If OEMs proceed with these transitions, we could still see pre-buy activity from fleets looking to avoid early adoption of new, unproven systems,” Pollard said.

There’s always a fear that there is a learning curve associated with new technology. “No one wants to be the first mover when so much of the current state is in flux,” Thompson said.

Equipment technology changes in 2007 and 2011 created some issues with downtime and reliability. “You just can’t test engines enough ahead of a mandate to totally mitigate problems in the real world, but past performance doesn’t indicate future problems,” Vieth said.

In addition to concerns over performance, fleets will have to deal with the increased costs 2027 equipment will bring.

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“The OEMs are investing billions of dollars into this new technology, and that comes with an associated charge and premium,” Thompson said.

EPA 2007 and EPA 2010 requirements added about 8% to the price of a new truck, Vieth said. The challenge is that carriers aren’t getting more for the freight they haul.

“One side of the of the supply chain is getting more expensive, and then the other side is getting pinched,” Thompson said. “That’s what’s causing a lot of our fleets right now to either go out of business, downsize or change industries.”

In general, carriers tend to bring down fleet age in strong markets and let trucks age during bad times, but they don’t always have the maintenance facilities or mechanics to maintain older trucks.

“They can go so long and age their fleet so far, but at some point, they have to maintain a minimum quality in their fleets,” Vieth said.

Most fleets Four Star Freightliner’s Morrison works with make buying decisions at the end of the third quarter for the following year.

“Some of our fleets are going to have to decide soon as the age of their fleets is causing their operating costs to increase exponentially,” he said.

Staying Nimble

Fleet Advantage’s Antonellis said there is an “economic tipping point” that should dictate when fleets replace equipment based on miles per gallon and maintenance costs, even if there are increased costs do to tariffs and new technology.

“If you buy a truck in year one, by year five you could be 7% to 10% behind [in fuel economy]. We’re always watching that gap because, at the same time, fuel economy starts to degrade at around 400,000 miles, and that gap starts to widen,” Antonellis said, adding that as trucks age, maintenance costs also increase. “In year one, you run about 2 cents a mile. By the time you get to year five, you’re running somewhere between 14 and 20 cents a mile.”

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Fortunately, fleets today have more data from electronic logging devices, telematics and maintenance software than in previous pre-buy cycles, which can help inform decision-making.

“We really can get down to a very detailed understanding of what the cost will be,” Antonellis said.

When it’s clear that purchasing trucks early can help avoid significant future costs, some fleets are inclined to accelerate purchases.

“It’s all about staying nimble, financially disciplined and ready to adapt as the landscape continues to shift,” Pollard said.

Fleets are adopting different strategies to stay flexible. Treadway noted that leasing and rental options could fill a gap if fleets see demand rebound but aren’t ready for a major capital investment. He also expects some sales to shift to the used truck market.

“That’s the one area that we feel like we can control our destiny, he said, “and so we’re expecting that to be our salvation.”

Used truck sales have been rising for the past year in the 14 states that follow CARB regulations.

“Why? In those states, it was hard to get enough Omnibus-eligible equipment. They were looking for used trucks there,” Antonellis said.

Despite the uncertainty, Fleet Advantage is encouraging customers to stay focused on the economics of their current trucks and the possible savings that come with refreshing their fleet.

“We can get extremely data-driven and give them a plan. The advantage we have now is we’re in front of this. We see it coming,” Antonellis said. “While the news might not always be what you want to hear, we can plan for it.”

Despite the headwinds, Treadway is optimistic.

“We are a cyclical industry. We know that. Groceries still have to move. Garbage still has to move,” he said. “We will get through this just like we get through every other curveball that gets thrown at us.”