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“It’s the rockets and feathers effect,” said Christopher Knittel, professor of energy economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “When things are going up — they go up fast.”

Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed Jan. 4 to keep production levels steady through the end of March, ratifying a decision made in November to suspend last year’s sequence of increases.

Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will hold a monthly video conference Jan. 4, and review a decision to halt further supply hikes in Q1 after rapidly reviving production earlier this year.

OPEC+ also approved a mechanism for its review of members’ individual production capacities, a sensitive process that will help set quotas in 2027. 

Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, BP and TotalEnergies will likely grow output 4.7% in 2026. The increases appear designed to capitalize on an expected oil price upturn in the latter half of 2026.

The change, which has not been confirmed by the Indian government, would boost Trump's efforts to pressure Moscow to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

The alliance has been raising output slightly in a series of boosts all year, after announcing cuts in 2023 and 2024.

OPEC+ nations are trying to reach consensus on how to adjust their oil production next month, with either a modest or more substantial supply increase possible, delegates said.

Saudi Arabia and its partners will review the expedited return of the remainder of a 1.66 million barrel-a-day supply tranche when they meet on Oct. 5.

OPEC and its partners will need to provide an average of 43.45 million barrels a day in the second half of this year, considerably more than the 42.4 million they pumped in August.