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Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.8% over the next year from 3.4% a month earlier, the biggest increase since April 2025.

The Bloomberg survey mirrors new estimates by the OECD, which sees higher inflation in the U.S. and other major economies.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Governor Stephen Miran dissented.

The spike in oil and gas prices presents already-divided Federal Reserve officials with a worst-case scenario as they conclude a key meeting March 18.

The rise in confidence comes as recent data has indicated the labor market is showing some signs of stabilization and inflation has been relatively tame.

Austan Goolsbee, in prepared remarks for a speech Feb. 24, said he wants to see evidence that inflation is cooling to the Fed’s 2% target before supporting further interest-rate cuts.

Compared with a year ago, inflation rose 2.9% in December, up from 2.8% in November. That is the largest yearly increase since March 2024.

The report suggests inflation could be cooling, but it comes after the cost of food, gas, and rents soared after the pandemic, with consumer prices about 25% higher than they were five years ago.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 Jan. 28 to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5%-3.75%. The two dissenting were in favor of a quarter-point reduction.

President Trump said if Hassett were to leave the White House National Economic Council, it would deprive the administration of one of its most powerful messengers of the economy.