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Shipments are expected to surpass 4 million barrels a day in August and September, reaching levels not seen since the start of the year, according to some market participants.

U.S. oil production is now expected to fall in 2026 as prices slide, according to a government forecast, reversing years of growth that propelled the country to the world’s top producer.

The latest production forecast for this year represents a drop of about 50,000 barrels a day from the Energy Information Administration’s previous projections in June.

The barrage of headlines has revived memories of the political upheavals and price spikes of the 1970s — and yet even when oil prices have jumped, it inevitably proved short-lived.

Concern about U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on U.S. imports of Canadian oil is waning as the duties’ start date keeps getting pushed back.

OPEC+ has little scope to reverse its oil production cuts, which have triggered a wave of rival supply from the U.S. shale industry, Iran’s representative to the group said.

It’s the third time in a row that the group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has turned a gathering scheduled for its Vienna headquarters into a virtual session.

While output is still poised to reach a record of 13.54 million barrels a day, the annual rate of growth is now projected at 2.4% versus 3.2%, per the Energy Information Administration.

Supply is back in the driver’s seat for global crude markets, as rising production from non-OPEC+ nations including the U.S. may outstrip global demand that’s growing at a slower pace.

Oil topped $50 a barrel for the first time and closed at a six-week high amid heightened optimism that a demand resurgence is in the offing.