Trucking Prepares for Subdued 2025 Holiday Shipping Season
Industry Faces Ongoing Softness Heading Into Peak Season
Key Takeaways:
- Freight carriers reported a more subdued start to the holiday shipping season, with DHL expecting volume about 33% above typical levels but slightly below prior years.
- Retailers projected more than $1 trillion in holiday sales, yet carriers said regulatory shifts, cautious consumers and early front-loading are muting peak-season demand.
- Companies including DHL, FedEx, Schneider and others are adding capacity, streamlining networks and remaining flexible as they prepare for potential late surges and uneven volumes.
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The trucking industry expects a more subdued bump in freight activity this holiday shipping season amid ongoing headwinds and uncertainties.
“Based on DHL Express’ expected shipping volumes for Black Friday, the official launch of the holiday shopping season shows a typical, but more measured, start,” said DHL Express U.S. CEO Greg Hewitt. “Through the rest of the holiday season, shipping volumes are expected to trend about 33% higher than the rest of the year, but slightly below prior years due to regulatory shifts and cautious consumer behavior.”
DHL Express anticipates demand to be concentrated in segments including artisanal foods, clothing and technology devices.
The National Retail Federation annual holiday forecast predicts retail sales growth of between 3.7% and 4.2% year over year during peak season to more than $1 trillion. The report concluded that buying activity remains fundamentally strong despite consumers remaining cautious over inflation and personal expenses.
“With U.S. holiday retail sales projected to top $1 trillion in 2025, retailers are under pressure to keep shelves stocked during the busiest shopping period of the year,” said Anthony Hoereth, senior vice president of sales at less-than-truckload carrier XPO. “That work starts months in advance, with freight carriers playing a key role positioning inventory ahead of the holiday rush. At XPO, most of our holiday-related shipping happens before Halloween.”
RELATED:Trucking Faces More Frugal Consumers This Holiday Season
Customers are turning to XPO’s premium services for holiday needs this year, the company said, with grocery sector customers positioning goods in warehouses early.
XPO ranks No. 5 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America and No. 39 on the TT Top 50 global freight carriers list.
(Dan Gleiter/pennlive.com/TNS)
DHL has invested in automation, staffing and customer engagement to prepare for the holiday season, Hewitt said.
“We schedule extra aircraft and trucking rotations and equipment, and additional pickup and delivery fleets,” he noted. “DHL Express is fully prepared to adjust our network capacity in response to any last-minute volume surges, as continuous investments in our network and predictive planning allow us to scale quickly while maintaining service quality.”
The company has also added 682 staff across customs, finance and customer service operations to help address tariff and de minimis exemption issues.
DHL Supply Chain ranks No. 13 on the TT Top 100 list of the largest logistics companies in North America, and DHL Group ranks No. 5 on the global freight TT50.
FedEx Corp. maintains a positive holiday outlook and has focused on efficiencies, transit times and service standards while preparing for the season. That has involved working with customers early, leveraging visibility tools and investing in its fleet, facilities and technology, it said.
FedEx ranks No. 2 on the for-hire TT100, and No. 3 on the global freight TT50.
“We are optimistic about peak season growth this year based on what we are hearing early on from our customers,” the company said in an email. “This peak season is one day longer than last year. With that in mind, we are expecting a modest increase in average daily volume.”
“We continue to streamline the network to better handle large packages through various types of facilities, including those built exclusively to handle large packages and regional sorting facilities to minimize handling,” FedEx added. “Sunday delivery service is available to nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population.”
Fleets Remain Cautious
Motor carrier Schneider does not expect a big holiday bump.
“We anticipated a softer holiday season compared to historical norms,” said Jim Filter, the company’s executive vice president of transportation and logistics. “We stay close to our customers to understand their expectations for demand during the peak season. We want to be flexible and ensure that we aren’t breaking our network. We have long-standing processes in place with customers to understand their forecasts and offer solutions. When there are unexpected surges, we also offer solutions to flex our capacity.” This year, he said that has included handling holiday demand appearing earlier than the typical peak season as shippers have front-loaded cargo.
Schneider ranks No. 10 on the for-hire TT100. It also ranks No. 7 on the truckload sector list, No. 18 on the logistics TT100 and No. 50 on the global freight TT50.
Cookeville, Tenn.-based Averitt Express has noticed capacity exiting the market amid carrier bankruptcies and federal enforcement efforts that are thinning driver ranks, but doesn’t expect these factors to drastically lift the market.
“While we are hopeful for an uptick in activity, we are not expecting a peak shipping season,” said Kent Williams, the carrier’s executive vice president of sales and marketing. “We continue to maintain our flexible, reliable service tailored to the customer’s needs through our five service units. We are also reducing our own costs and expenses to offset slightly lower volumes.”
(Averitt Express)
Williams noted the company has seen limited and inconsistent shipper front-loading of cargo, mostly tied to tariff-related concerns.
Averitt ranks No. 29 on the for-hire TT100 and No. 100 on the logistics TT100.
“We’ve seen that there was a significant push midyear from a lot of shippers that were trying to escape the unknown tariffs, and it seems that it was quite significant,” said Tomasz Jamroz, president and chief operating officer at LTL carrier Roadrunner. “Whatever is to be delivered to customers seems to be already at that final destination.”
Jamroz is hopeful that falling interest rates will lift the LTL sector and noted that the end of the recent government shutdown means federal workers will be getting larger checks as they catch up on back pay. Roadrunner has a customer mix that allows it to be fairly consistent throughout the year with little seasonal impact, he noted.
The company ranks No. 78 on the for-hire TT100 and No. 19 among LTL carriers.
Estes Express Lines expects a decent residential final-mile delivery push from consumers as a result of shippers’ efforts front-loading goods that are now situated in warehouses. The company advanced long-term operational plans ahead of the holidays by increasing its door count and adding electric pallet jacks and straight trucks.
“Last year and this year had really late Thanksgivings,” said Webb Estes, the company’s president and COO. “One of the things that we keep a really close eye on is just the number of days until Christmas. And so, we love it when customers start deals early and those types of things, just so it spreads out the season a little bit more.”
Estes ranks No. 8 on the for-hire TT100 and No. 3 on the LTL sector list.
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