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What Comes Next for Class 8 Orders?
VTNA’s Koeck Sees Fleets Place Orders for Entire Year in February
Key Takeaways:
- North American Class 8 truck orders jumped 156% year over year to 46,200 units in February, surprising analysts and marking the strongest February on record.
- Analysts and OEM executives say replacement needs and improving freight fundamentals are driving demand, though some warn that FOMO-driven orders could later trigger cancellations and pricing pressure.
- Executives caution that future truck demand faces uncertainty from emissions regulations and rising fuel prices tied to Middle East conflict, which could squeeze already thin carrier margins.
Class 8 truck orders surged December through February, with the most recent month’s data surprising analysts, but at least one veteran market watcher has questions on how sustainable carrier appetite is.
North American Class 8 truck orders jumped 156% year over year to 46,200 units in February, according to ACT Research data.
“The orders surge surprised us in February. I would say we would have expected December, January. It did surprise us in February, and I think surprised everyone. February was the strongest February ever,” Magnus Koeck, Volvo Trucks North America vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management, told Transport Topics.
Order season for North American original equipment manufacturers typically kicks off in September, but this past fall and winter saw a lag in commitments from fleets.
December historically sees a bump as OEMs eye full-year and quarterly targets. December 2025 was no exception, surpassing expectations, but momentum afterward was atypical.
After a long wait-and-see period, many major fleets placed orders in January and again in February, VTNA’s Koeck said, adding that — rather atypically — orders came in for build spots throughout 2026.
“People don’t really need trucks now, but they need it later. They predict they need it later on in the year. So, they put in an order, but want to have it built in November or delivered in December, we are seeing more of that,” Koeck said on the sidelines of the Technology & Maintenance Council’s 2026 Annual Meeting and Transportation Technology Exhibition.
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Koeck at TMC's 2026 Annual Meeting. (Seth Clevenger/Transport Topics)
Such a cadence is not unprecedented but raises questions.
“The little bit scary part with seeing these extreme order months is it becomes a self-playing piano. We have seen this many times in the past. FOMO — fear of missing out. Oh, what is happening here? What am I missing? I place an order. And then, oh, shoot, what am I missing? I place an order. In the end, it might come and bite us, right?” said Koeck.
OEMs have been waiting for a turnaround in North American order books for a number of quarters.
VTNA halted production lines at key manufacturing facilities in the fourth quarter of 2025, and parent company Volvo Group expected the pauses to be even longer in the first quarter of 2026.
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VTNA's New River Valley plant. (Volvo Trucks North America)
Koeck told TT production pauses at the New River Valley plant were less frequent than expected in January but he remained cautious about prospects for the coming quarters.
“We have seen this movie several times, not just here, but also on the other side of the ocean when the order board becomes ridiculously long,” he said, citing 2017-18 in particular.
The trouble is that cancellations tend to follow, and OEMs and dealers seek to move inventory, which Koeck said leads to price pressure and perhaps 12 months before a balanced market returns.
There are, however, some more sustainable components to the order surge.
Fleet ages are now atypically high, but eventually carriers have to replace rolling stock, Koeck said, adding that an 8-year-old truck is far more expensive to operate than a newer vehicle.
A sustained increase in rates is also aiding carrier appetite though, according to an independent market analyst.
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“While a portion of demand still reflects previously deferred replacement purchases re-entering the market, the consistency and breadth of recent order activity suggest momentum is now being driven more meaningfully by improving freight fundamentals,” said Dan Moyer, FTR Transportation Intelligence Senior Analyst, Commercial Vehicles.
One factor not playing a major role in the jump in orders though, according to Koeck, is carriers attempting to pre-empt the introduction of emissions regulations by ordering rigs before the deadline — transactions colloquially termed “pre-buy” purchases.
The Environmental Protection Agency is set to leave in place a Biden-era requirement that NOx emissions for heavy-duty trucks drop to 35 milligrams per horsepower-hour from 200 mg/hp-hr.
It is a factor playing on senior truck and engine maker executives’ minds, with optimism growing at Cummins.
But Koeck is not convinced the pre-buy is much of a factor yet, telling TT: “Some pre-buy is probably there, although I don’t think that’s the main reason right now. I think it will come into play more in Q2 and Q3,” said Koeck.
FTR’s Moyer agrees, noting volumes, utilization and improved clarity on tariff-adjusted pricing and the EPA regulations boosted carrier confidence in increasing their equipment replacement spending.
But truck maker executives say there is a wild card looming over truck demand prognostications and expectations of a 2026 freight sector rebound — Operation Epic Fury and its impact on crude oil and diesel prices.
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Daimler Truck is very wary of what’s happening in the Middle East, Chief Financial Officer Eva Scherer said March 12, even while eyeing a North American truck demand rebound.
Less than a week later — as bombings of Iranian targets by U.S. and Israeli warplanes escalated and oil prices topped $100 per barrel — Koeck was even blunter.
“Now, the big unknown is, of course, how long will the war last? What’s going to happen? How will the fuel prices look like a month from now or two or three months from now? That is, of course, concerning,” he said, warning that carriers’ margins were already very thin.
