Ford Refuses to Rush Into Robo-Taxis, Even After GM, Waymo Deals
General Motors Co. and Alphabet Inc.鈥檚 Waymo rocked the auto industry last week with self-driving deals that will have each deploying thousands of robo-taxis onto U.S. roads over the next 18 months. Ford Motor Co., meanwhile, will continue biding its time.

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The second-largest U.S. automaker is going to keep playing the long game after news that a SoftBank fund will invest $2.25 billion in GM鈥檚 self-driving unit Cruise and that Waymo will add 62,000 Chrysler minivans to its autonomous robo-taxi fleet.
Ford intends to set itself apart by proving out both its technology and business cases simultaneously 鈥 and the company has no plans to change or accelerate its approach.
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鈥淲e certainly do not feel behind on getting to a profitable business,鈥 Sherif Marakby, Ford鈥檚 vice president of autonomous vehicles and electrification, said in an interview. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a lot more than just a car and the software that goes into the car. We鈥檙e building a business. How we鈥檙e going to generate the revenue and profits matter more than just jumping in and running a business someplace.鈥
Ford is sorting out business plans while Wall Street buys into GM鈥檚 splashy bet it can have an autonomous taxi service ready for public roads in 2019. Analysts also have assigned valuations to Waymo: Morgan Stanley pegged the Alphabet unit鈥檚 worth at $75 billion earlier this year.
There鈥檚 no denying the high stakes.
Self-driving cars are expected to upend the transportation industry and usher in a business worth $7 trillion by midcentury, according to a report last year by Intel Corp. and Strategy Analytics. Automakers that are accustomed to modest profit margins of less than 10% think removing the driver from taxis and delivery trucks offers the prospect of generating returns that exceed 20%. Those who get it right will have a prosperous future. Those who don鈥檛 may not have a future.

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Pressure鈥檚 On
The investment by SoftBank Vision Fund in GM鈥檚 Cruise will support the automaker鈥檚 bid to keep pace with Waymo, which plans to debut a public ride-hailing service in Phoenix later this year. Ford has said its driverless cars won鈥檛 arrive until 2021.
鈥淚f your date to deliver your first vehicle is two years past when your top rival is set to produce at scale, it brings into question whether you鈥檙e going to be as competitive,鈥 said Mike Ramsey, an analyst with consultant Gartner Inc. 鈥淭here鈥檚 no way you can look at those big announcements, especially if you鈥檙e Ford, and not think, 鈥榃ow, this does put pressure on us to close the gap.鈥欌夆
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Ford is test driving its future business forays in Miami, where it has self-driving Fusion sedans buzzing around the streets ferrying people, packages and pizza. Working in partnerships with Domino鈥檚 and Postmates, Ford is focusing equally on driverless delivery and ride-hailing to maximize the revenue it can wring from its autonomous vehicles.
Peaks and Valleys
The automaker is designing an all-new model 鈥 without steering wheel, accelerator or brake pedal 鈥 that is capable of running around the clock to carry people or products, a combination it sees as key to success.
鈥淲ith ride-hailing, there are peaks and valleys in the day, so we鈥檙e thinking about filling all the gaps, all the valleys, for these expensive assets,鈥 Marakby said of Ford鈥檚 dual-purpose autonomous vehicles. 鈥淵ou鈥檝e got to focus on maximum utilization. We鈥檙e really laser-focused on the ultimate goal of profitable miles and utilization to get to profitable AVs in 2021.鈥
Wall Street is not convinced Ford has a better idea than GM. Since the SoftBank deal was announced May 31, GM shares have jumped 16%, boosting its market capitalization by $8.7 billion. During that same period, Ford shares have climbed 4.2%, paring their decline for the year to 3.7%.
Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas wrote this week that sentiment toward Ford 鈥渋s easily the lowest of any name under our U.S. coverage.鈥 Jonas, who has the equivalent of a buy rating on the stock, argues investors aren鈥檛 appreciating the value of Ford鈥檚 F-Series pickup franchise, which generates $42 billion in annual revenue and pretax profit of more than $10 billion 鈥 that鈥檚 plenty to finance Ford鈥檚 autonomous ambitions.
Argo鈥檚 Options
Some believe Ford has to respond to GM鈥檚 move in order to keep pace in the race to autonomy. One possibility could be that Ford鈥檚 self-driving affiliate, Argo AI, seeks a cash infusion from a third party like SoftBank鈥檚 investment in GM鈥檚 Cruise Automation.
鈥淕M鈥檚 relationship with SoftBank now might help them break into the Chinese market and the Indian market and some of the other regions where SoftBank has investments,鈥 said Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst with Navigant Research. 鈥淔ord is still very North American-focused. I wouldn鈥檛 be surprised to see them do a partnership similar to GM and SoftBank to expand their reach beyond North America.鈥
Marakby didn鈥檛 rule out such a deal, noting that Argo AI remains an independent company despite Ford鈥檚 $1 billion investment into the self-driving startup run by former Waymo and Uber executives. Argo could do a deal to supply self-driving software to another automaker even before Ford gets its autonomous vehicles on the road in 2021, Marakby said.
鈥淎rgo is open to other investments from others and integration with other鈥 automakers, Marakby said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not Ford-exclusive.鈥
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