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Diesel prices rocketed in the immediate aftermath of the joint U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran, and the military escalation that followed set in motion a wave of geopolitical uncertainty.

U.S. crude production fell to near 13.7 million barrels a day in December, the lowest in six months, according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration.

EIA expects the spot Brent crude price to average $55 per barrel in 2026, down from $69 in 2025 and $81 in 2024. Brent is the global benchmark for crude prices.

The latest production forecast for this year represents a drop of about 50,000 barrels a day from the Energy Information Administration’s previous projections in June.

The U.S. sees domestic crude production declining next year for the first time since 2021 in a blow to President Donald Trump’s push for American energy dominance.

OPEC forecast another year of steady oil demand growth, driven by India and China, in its first detailed assessment of 2026.

Forecasts for trucking’s main fuel, which alongside heating oil is part of the distillate portion of the crude barrel, softened over the past month even as retail prices edged higher.

Despite this minor uptick, diesel remains significantly cheaper than a year ago.

U.S. oil demand growth is forecast to plateau this year, in the latest bearish indicator for the market, according to the Energy Information Administration.

The national average diesel price rose 5.2 cents to $3.865 in its fourth consecutive increase, according to Energy Information Administration data released July 8.