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July 14, 2015 5:40 PM, EDT

Truck driver turnover rates fell to a four-year low in the first quarter among larger fleets and declined 12 percentage points at larger and smaller fleets alike, American Trucking Associations reported.

The decline among fleets with $30 million or more in revenue to 84% from 96% put the annualized churn rate at its lowest point since the second quarter of 2011. The decline was on a sequential basis from the fourth quarter of last year.

The annualized rate was 83% at fleets with revenue below that amount, dipping from 95%, also on a sequential basis. The last time smaller fleets had a lower churn rate was in the first quarter of last year.

ATA’s report was issued at a time when the trade federation’s truck tonnage growth has been easing, reaching its slowest pace of growth of 1.8% in the group’s latest report.

“Clearly, the decline in driver turnover in the first quarter was significant,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said, “but what is less clear is why it dropped so much and whether turnover will continue to remain low.”

LIVEONWEB: Costello joins TT panel to talk capacity, 7/15, noon EDT

While it wasn’t totally clear why turnover declined, Costello emphasized that drivers continue to be a key issue for trucking.

“Drivers continue to be in high demand, so we still see the risks posed to the economy and our industry by the shortage of drivers,” Costello said. “The drop in turnover was likely, at least partially, connected to a temporary slowdown in freight movements in the quarter, as well as improved retention efforts for fleets across the board.”

He also suggested that an increase could be possible in future quarters.

“I would not be surprised if turnover edges higher in the quarters ahead,” he said.