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Trailer Orders Slow as Fleets Shift Priorities
ACT Research and FTR Data Show Sharp Sequential Declines as Backlogs Are Worked Down
Key Takeaways:
- U.S. trailer orders fell more than 25% year over year in February, with both ACT Research and FTR reporting steep sequential declines.
- Analysts attributed the slowdown to seasonal patterns, backlog management and fleets prioritizing tractor replacements over trailers.
- Elevated input costs and ongoing tariffs continue to pressure the trailer market despite early signs of tightening freight capacity.
U.S. trailer orders in February came in below prior-year results as the sector began working down peak-season backlogs.
ACT Research reported preliminary net data showed orders decreased 26% year over year to 13,200 units. The results were also 43% below the previous month. Seasonally adjusted volume at this point in the annual order cycle lowers the tally to about 12,300 units.
“Sequentially, a drop in net orders was expected, as the industry transitions from the strongest to the weakest order months of the annual cycle,” said Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research for ACT Research, adding that trailer makers will begin taking fewer orders to lessen the backlog.
McNealy added that this peak started and ended later than usual as fleets remained hesitant to make decisions going into late 2025. This caused a surprisingly strong outcome for January. McNealy also questioned how quickly trailer makers will be able to bring down the backlog, especially given concerns about the level of activity in key freight sectors.
“What we saw in February was a significant drop-off, even year over year, on the trailer side,” said Brandon Lairsen, vice president of trailer leasing at Transport Enterprise Leasing. “There’s been a lot of activity on the truck-replacement side, and that’s shifted everybody’s focus away from trailers. That’s not the burning fire that they’re sitting on right now.”
First Quarter Tends to Be Slow
Lairsen pointed out that the first three months of the year are usually slower because carriers start to shed their excess capacity from peak season. He sees this year as especially tough, with carriers more focused on finally replacing aging tractors. Also, Lairsen notes a surge in decade-old trailers that will need to be replaced.
“There were pretty healthy volumes of trailers built in 2016 and in 2017,” Lairsen said. “That’s going to go a long way to help tighten capacity in the trailer market this year.”
Lairsen is hopeful this will drive new trailer sales. He also suspects there will be activity for used trailers in the two-year range. He doesn’t expect a notable increase in activity in older units because prices have gone down since then, lowering the market value past what many owners are willing to sell them for. He also pointed to flatbeds as an area seeing growth.
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“There’s a lot of construction around data centers as AI has taken over everything,” Lairsen said. “That’s driving big demand in flatbeds. The flatbed rates are reflective of that. Other industries, I hear inklings that automotive is starting to come back, which is encouraging, that new home construction is starting to tick up, which is encouraging.”
Encouraging signs in the freight market include spot rates and load rejections increasing. Lairsen sees these trends as possible indicators of capacity tightening.
“In conversations with a lot of carriers, the other encouraging sign is, in their negotiations with shippers, the carriers are actually in the driver’s seat now,” he said. “All of these are positive indicators of where the industry is headed.”
FTR Transportation Intelligence preliminary data found trailer orders decreased 31% year over year to 13,305 units. The report noted this was well below the 10-year average for the month of 25,172 units. Orders also dropped 45% compared with January. The report noted that the sequential decline far exceeded normal seasonality.
“The U.S. trailer market remains under pressure from elevated input costs and ongoing trade uncertainty,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR. “Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum and derivative products remain in place.”
Tarrifs Add to Market Pressures
Those pressures are being compounded by trade policy, as tariffs on key materials such as steel and aluminum continue to inflate trailer input costs and complicate pricing for manufacturers.
President Donald Trump has heavily leveraged tariffs to rework international trade. The U.S. Supreme Court derailed a major source of assumed tariff powers by ruling against his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
“Despite the U.S. Supreme Court’s February ruling striking down the administration’s country-specific tariffs that relied on emergency powers, replacement tariffs of 10% under other authority took their place,” Moyer said. “Trade pressures are also intensifying in the van segment due to an ongoing antidumping and countervailing duty investigation.”
