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Retaliatory tariffs would be particularly bad for farmers. (libertygal/Getty Images)

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The transportation sector is bracing for the possibility that a slew of new tariffs could soon hit some of its most critically important industries, according to experts.

“If the Trump administration moves forward with proposed tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China, it would impact over 50% of U.S. imports by volume according to Project44 data,” said Jenna Slagle, senior data analyst at Project44. “Canada was the top area the United States shipped exports to in 2024, accounting for about 43% of all exports. It is the largest consumer of United States exports, both by volume and value.”

President Donald Trump kicked off a trade dispute with the three countries soon after taking office, announcing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. He also proposed a 10% tariff on China. However, the White House pushed by one month the original Feb. 4 deadline for implementation of the tariffs with its two neighbors after some initial negotiations centered largely on border issues.

Slagle warned, however, that adoption of retaliatory tariffs from these countries could severely strain U.S. exports longer-term. In particular, she pointed out that Mexico, Canada and China are top importers of agricultural products from the U.S., meaning retaliatory tariffs would be particularly bad for farmers.

“The potential imposition of tariffs on these countries could not only affect U.S. imports and exports, but also disrupt supply chains, including agricultural, manufacturing and automotive products, resulting in higher consumer prices and tense trade relations,” she said.

Equipment manufacturers also would feel some pain, Slagle added. “Impact will also span to machine manufacturers, the automotive industry and numerous other sectors as well,” she said.

Uber Freight has been working closely with its shipper customers to navigate the uncertainties and impacts of these potential tariffs, and reports that these customers are not anticipating a shutdown. Instead, they’re charging ahead and preparing for what might come.

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“What we’re hearing from our customers is that it’s business as usual,” Jose Guerrero, director of U.S. customs operations at Uber Freight, said about Mexico. “They still have orders to fulfill. They have customers that require certain products, [and] that they’re required to continue for sales.”

He believes the one-month delay on the tariffs will jump-start activity.

“Given the fact that there’s a pause, honestly, there’s going to be an increase,” Guerrero said. “Most of our customers are saying that they’re going to try to get pretty much everything out.” Guerrero expects to see an uptick in volume as a result, and so far has not seen any indication that volume is going to decrease.

Craig Watson, managing director for Canada at Uber Freight, has seen a similar trend on the Canadian side.

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“Our shippers have been pre-emptively increasing some volumes to get inventory in place,” Watson said. “We had quite a few of our customers send some expedited loads, so there was some surging there. People were, more on the consumer goods side of things, trying to get some inventory built up.”

Watson said companies are attempting to build up inventories both ways across the border. While first they were trying to beat the original Feb. 4 tariff deadline, under the delay they continue to build their inventories. Watson said shippers also are trying to figure out whether they can absorb the tariffs, and how much might need to be passed on to customers.

“We’ve been working with our customers, trying to make sure that we’ve got all the capacity and procurement strategies for them that they’re going to need as we start to see shifts in the supply chain,” Watson said. “So they’re really assessing that strategy.”

Financial firm TD Cowen noted in a report that truckload players tend to have larger cross-border exposure than less-then-truckload, but acknowledged the potential of broader economic impacts from the tariffs. It also noted that trucking has less direct exposure to seaborne trade than rails.

“We highlight tariff and de minimis exposure for the transports, acknowledging negotiated pauses which could prove temporary,” Cowen analyst Jason Seidl wrote in the report. “Parcels [and] forwarding see largest exposure.”

The Logistics Managers’ Index calculated the tariffs on Mexico and Canada would amount to approximately $185 billion in additional costs paid by importers. The automotive, oil and gas production, electronics, medical equipment and food industries would be especially impacted. The Chinese tariffs would increase costs $225 billion to $230 billion, LMI predicted.

“At the time of this writing the tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been delayed by a month, making it unclear whether or not they will be implemented,” the LMI stated. “The uncertainty surrounding these potential regulations is difficult for supply managers due in part to their scale. This is because 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would represent significant regulation on the U.S.’s two biggest trade partners, which accounted for $1.475 trillion in the trade of goods in 2024.”

The LMI is compiled by researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University, the University of Nevada-Reno and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals.