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Moving and Storage Grapples With Whirlwind Economy
ATA Panel Cites Bigger Tax Refunds and Future Rate Cuts but Warns Tariffs Threaten Freight Demand
Key Takeaways:
- Economists at the ATA Moving & Storage Conference said the industry may see early-year boosts from larger tax refunds and expected Fed rate cuts despite lingering economic risks.
- Panelists warned that tariffs and affordability pressures threaten consumer spending and housing mobility, with U-6 unemployment rising to 7.9% as a sign of labor market strain.
- Experts said they are watching court challenges over tariff refunds, shifting hiring and quits data, and evolving construction trends driven by housing supply needs and AI-related infrastructure.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The moving and storage industry faces potential tailwinds even as economic obstacles remain.
That was the assessment presented in a panel session March 16 at the American Trucking Associations’ Moving & Storage Conference Annual Meeting.
“The first potential tailwind we have is a one-time increase from the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill,’ ” said Lindsay Bur, director of data science and economics at American Trucking Associations. “People are going to be getting bigger tax returns coming this April, and we’re probably going to see a spike in consumer spending in the second quarter of the year.”
The Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rates also loomed large. Bur expects two more quarter-point cuts, but later in the year than initially projected. She emphasized that the Fed faces a delicate balance as it navigates risks on both prices and unemployment.
Bur cautioned that tariffs pose a significant headwind, as higher consumer costs could slow spending and ripple through freight and manufacturing.
“These tariffs, potentially, as they get passed through the consumers, are going to be an inhibitor on consumer spending and therefore on the freight industry,” she said.
Bur also sees tariff refunds as a potential headwind further down the road. The U.S. Supreme Court rejecting a series of tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act has raised the question of whether companies that already paid will be refunded, with the issue now moving through the courts.
“[Mortgage bankers] really come down to interest rates and affordability,” said Edward Seiler, associate vice president for housing economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association. “Of course, affordability means people will move. First-time home buyers can get homes.”
Seiler said the economy averaged about 10,000 new payroll jobs each month throughout 2025 — a figure he characterized as small — and that job growth has seesawed in recent months.
“We’re not out of the woods yet, however, unemployment rates are still low,” Seiler said. “The unemployment rate really looks at people who were actively looking for a job. What happens if people really haven’t found a job for a while, and they’re discouraged or disparaged.”
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the as an alternative measure of labor underutilization. It measures the total number of unemployed persons, plus those marginally attached to the labor force or working part time for economic reasons. It came in at 7.9% of the civilian labor force in the latest readings in February 2026.
“What it’s really showing is that we have this canary in the coal mine and that has ticked up a bit high,” Seiler said. “So we’re keeping a keen eye on that because that’s really what we should be looking at, is the economy weakening. The other thing we keep on looking at, and I think this is really relevant here, are the hires and the quits.”
Seiler noted that voluntary quits have declined amid economic uncertainty and fewer job opportunities. Even as hiring slows, he added, companies also are not conducting widespread layoffs.
“It’s very difficult for people to buy their first homes. Affordability is way down … The big increase was in 2022, interest rates doubled,” Seiler said, noting that a $500,000 house in 2021 isn’t the same product as a $500,000 house in 2023.
He said payments have escalated and remain elevated due to interest rates and limited supply. He expressed optimism that supply conditions may begin improving as government attention to the issue increases. Meanwhile, nonresidential construction has risen, driven in part by infrastructure needs for artificial intelligence.
“This is a very new marketplace,” said James Bohnaker, economist at Cushman & Wakefield. “We’ve always had data centers, but not the kind that we have today that are necessary for AI. But that’s one portion of the market […]. Generally, office use is down, and so, we’re not constructing much more of that space. On the retail side of things, retail hasn’t been a hot construction market for many years, ever since the rise of e-commerce.”
