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US Medium‑Duty Market Extends Yearlong Decline
Ongoing Softness Reflects Weak Demand, Uncertain Business Environment
Key Takeaways:
- Medium‑duty truck sales fell 16.6% year over year in January marking 12 consecutive months of declines.
- Analysts attribute the slump to excess fleet capacity weak demand and potential production shifts toward Class 8.
- All medium‑duty classes posted January declines with Class 4 experiencing the steepest drop.
U.S. medium-duty truck sales in January reached the ominous milestone of 12 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, according to data from Omdia Automotive.
Classes 4-7 retail truck sales for the month decreased 16.6% to 16,035 units from 19,216 a year earlier. Medium-duty sales have trended below prior-year results every month since January 2025.
The January results also marked a 16% sequential drop from 19,082 units in December.
“Some of the biggest customers in that [medium-duty] space are still sitting on excess capacity and they’re trying to divest themselves of that capacity, so that’s part of the reason” for the ongoing weakness, said. “We’re just not seeing a whole lot of life in the segment.”
Tam expects an ongoing shift by truck manufacturers toward domestic production could put further strain on medium-duty sales as capacity will be shifted to the stronger segments.
“We’ve got finite capacity in the U.S. so something has got to give,” Tam said. “If we’re going to produce more Class 8s here, we’re going to produce fewer medium-duties. And if you don’t build it, you can’t sell it.”
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“The consumer has held up well so far in this cycle, but the margin [is] shrinking," ACT Research's Steve Tam says. (ACT Research)
Tam notes it’s too early to determine whether this type of shift would actually take hold, and stresses that at this point the entire medium-duty segment is in what he described as a universal malaise.
The overall business climate is another concern, he said.
“The consumer has held up well so far in this cycle, but the margin [is] shrinking,” Tam said.“Wages are continuing to grow, but the rate at which they’re growing is declining.”
He suggested the truck sales climate would need to improve before that growth ticks up.
“We’re starting to see a situation where we might have to swing that pendulum into the business realm for them to pick up the slack, and I don’t know that’s going to happen given where we are right now,” Tam said.
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Omdia data for January showed decreases across every medium-duty class. Class 7 truck sales declined 19.3% to 3,745 units from 4,643, while Class 6 sales declined 8.1% to 5,706 units from 6,206. Class 5 declined 16.4% to 5,586 from 6,689 units, and Class 4 declined 40.5% to 998 from 1,678.
Freightliner reported the most Class 7 sales at 1,768 units. Ford sold the most Class 6 trucks at 3,043 units, and the most Class 5 vehicles at 3,709. Isuzu sold the most Class 4 units at 552.
