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Global Trade to Slow on Opposing Forces of Energy Surge, AI
WTO Forecasts the Volume of Goods Trade Will Rise by 1.9%
Global merchandise trade will decelerate less sharply this year than the World Trade Organizationpredictedsix months ago, but faces a deeper slowdown if war in the Middle East keeps energy prices high for a sustained period.
The volume of goods trade is forecast to rise by 1.9%, compared with the WTO’s predictionin Octoberfor a 0.5% gain in 2026 and markedly weaker than a 4.6% jump in 2025 that was attributed to AI and a smaller-than-expected drag from U.S. tariffs.
The WTO forecast that services trade, which typically grows at a faster rate than goods, will increase by 4.8% in 2026, compared with 5.3% last year.
In value terms, overall merchandise trade measured in worldwide exports totaled $26.3 trillion in 2025, while services trade amounted to $9.6 trillion. The overall impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs was smaller than expected because of delays, minimal retaliation and numerous exceptions, the WTO said.
The Geneva-based organization’s report described a global economy buffeted by two main crosscurrents — one posing downside risks to the outlook, the other an upside.
High oil pricesfrom an extended conflict in the Persian Gulf would shave 0.5 percentage point off the 2026 goods forecast and knock 0.7 point off the services trade outlook, according to the WTO report.
BREAKING: Trade is forecast to slow in 2026 after stronger than expected growth in 2025. WTO economists also provide a scenario of even weaker growth if the Middle East conflict leads to a prolonged period of higher energy prices. More: — WTO (@wto)
Upside, Downside Risks
“A prolonged conflict could keep transport and fuel costs structurally elevated, disrupt key shipping and air routes, and weigh on regional tourism and global travel demand,” it said.
On the other hand, the global boom in artificial intelligence is fueling demand for electronics, semiconductors, generators, building materials and other equipment that buoyed goods trade last year. If that momentum in AI-related trade stays strong, there’s a chance for a boost of 0.5 percentage point, the WTO said.
Economies in Asia accounted for about 71% of last year’s increase in total trade volume. By region, North America was a laggard in export and import flows, according to the WTO.
While the Trump administration has downplayed how disruptive Washington’s trade policy has been for the domestic economy, the WTO’s report explores the question.
U.S. Disruptions
Trump’s tariffs, unpredictable threats of import duties and the broader uncertainty around his actions led to what the WTO called “highly uneven” growth. Significant year-on-year gains were seen in only a narrow set of products, including AI-enabling goods that were exempted from levies.
But several of the largest import categories — such as machinery and electronics not used for AI — “registered negative growth rates,” the WTO said. The same was true for a wide set of imports of consumer and intermediate goods including vehicles, apparel, textiles, toys, plastics and paper products.
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The WTO report said that distinction suggested “a broad‑based decline in U.S. imports outside of a handful of commodity and AI‑related inputs.”
“Many of these consumer and intermediate goods showed positive year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2025 due to front-loading,” the WTO noted. “Their overall negative growth for the year suggests that the weakness of US imports in the second half of 2025 is not just a drawdown of the inventories accumulated at the beginning of the year, but potentially points to the impact of higher tariffs.”
The share of world trade conducted on most-favored-nation basis — the WTO principle requiring countries to treat all trading partners equally — dropped to 72% in February 2026 from 80% at the start of 2025.
