91��Ƶ

This story appears in the Sept. 28 print edition of Transport Topics.

Imports at U.S. major retail container ports are expected to decline by more than 17% in 2009 from a year earlier, but a new report by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight predicts the end of the recession is near.

“We’re starting to see a pattern where import levels are still below last year, but they’re not as far below as they were just a few months ago,” Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in a statement. “This matches up with other economic indicators that show the recession may be coming to an end.”

If the projections prove accurate, the 12.5 million 20-foot-equivalent units for 2009, down from 15.2 million last year, would mark the lowest number of imported TEUs since 2003, when 12.47 million containers came into U.S. ports.

IHS’ monthly Port Tracker report found that 11 of the nation’s key ports handled 1.1 million TEUs in July, the most recent month for which numbers are available. That tally was up 8% from June but down 17% from July 2008. It was the 25th month in a row in which there was a year-over-year decline.

October, traditionally the peak month of the year, is forecast at 1.14 million TEUs, down 17% from a year ago. Forecasters place November numbers at 1.07 million TEU, down 13%, and December at 1.04 million TEU, down 2% from 2008.

“Import container traffic is projected to be weak through January because of the slow pace of recovery from the recession and the slow period that follows the holiday season,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said in a statement. “We are seeing the annual cycle of month-to-month growth that will peak in October, but volume is still below last year’s levels.”

“I think we are very, very near the bottom,” said Dan Smith, a partner at transportation consultant The Tioga Group. “I think there’s a very good indication that we are at the bottom of the trough as a whole.” The key to better days will be when most retailers realize their inventories cannot shrink any more and they start ordering again, Smith said.

“Fashions change, people’s demands change and technology changes,” Smith said. “At some point, you have to bite the bullet and order the merchandise that’s going to sell this year, even if you’ve still got some of last year’s merchandise back in the warehouse.” Some sectors of the economy, including the automotive and home-building industries, face a slower recovery, Smith said.

Despite the encouraging forecast, a recent report for the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Calif., by IHS and Tioga concluded that the recovery will be slow, without the sharp rebound that has characterized some previous recessions.

Consumer spending habits may not return to normal for some time. Before the recession, on average Americans were basically spending every penny they earned, Smith said.

“We were counting on the rising value of stock portfolios and the rising value of our homes to give us that long-term sense of security and wealth,” Smith said. “Then, their pensions got hammered, and the value of their houses declined steeply.”

“The marginal propensity to spend is going down,” Smith said. “We’re going to have to start rebuilding our perceptions of wealth before we start spending more.”