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“We still have this very real overhang of small carriers who are not exiting the business,” Vise said. (Bim/Getty Images)

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Fleet executives remain flummoxed as to how the freight market will solve the conundrum of exiting the elongated rate recession, with little change in the bumpy ride of the past eight months expected over the coming 12-18 months, conference attendees heard Sept. 9.

Carrier capacity levels remain stubbornly high, uncertainty continues to hinder customer investment levels and demand is unlikely to undergo a metamorphosis, carrier executives and analysts told the in Indianapolis.

Still, perceived wisdom across the trucking universe does come with one wild card or asterisk, said one panelist — the unprecedented speed and decisiveness of action of the federal government under President Donald Trump.

“It’s going to be a bumpy next 12 to 18 months,” Senior Vice President of Account Management Matt Parry told conference attendees, although the executive does expect a good 2025 holiday shipping period.

CEO Sam Anderson also does not expect the market to improve much in the next 12 to 18 months. While some rates have risen, costs rose more than 5% in each of the past three years, said Anderson.

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FTR Chairman Eric Starks said no one expected the market to be so tough as 2025 came to a close.

“The reason it feels like we’ve been on a roller coaster ride is because we’ve been on a roller coaster,” Starks said.

“Our customers are really challenged more than they ever have been before,” noted Executive Vice President of Sales & Marketing Spencer Frazier.

However, the U.S. consumer and carrier community is nothing if not resilient and adaptable, the Hunt executive said. “It might not be fun in the moment, but it’s what we do,” he said.

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Volumes have been little changed, FTR Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise said, and an improvement is unlikely before 2027.

FTR expects dry van truck loadings to fall 0.6% in 2025, another 0.3% in 2026 and rise 2.3% in 2027. The research and analysis group expects refrigerated van truck loadings to increase 0.7% in 2025, 2026 and 2027.

But, said Vise, such changes are unlikely to alter the freight market without a substantial cut in carrier capacity even though many players are already running extremely tight ships.

“We still have this very real overhang of small carriers who are not exiting the business,” Vise said.

With smaller players’ low overheads and low debt plus larger carriers only able to do so much to downsize, Vise said it will take another 18 months or so of continued uncertainty or a Black Swan event to effect substantial change.

“We are seeing capacity cut to the bone in a lot of these operations. They can’t cut further because they need the revenue. So, you can only cut capacity so much before you can’t cover overhead. And in a lot of cases, overhead that you can’t do without. … I think it’s going to be a really critical period, something that we haven’t seen, even really compared to the Great Recession,” Vise said.

FTR expects rate increases of less than 2% in 2025 and 2026, said Vise. “It’s better than losing, I guess, but its not going to make a difference,” said Vise, which means some kind of seismic shift will be needed.

“Really, the question is what happens on the capacity side,” Werner’s Parry said, adding: “There’s a lot of companies that have not been healthy for a long time.”

Parry said that there may be more consolidation in the trucking sector rather than a jump in bankruptcies, although he expects the frequency of bankruptcies for carriers with 200 to 700 tractors to increase. A substantial proportion is one big accident or one big customer declining to renew a contract away from trouble, he said.

Werner ranks No. 18 on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America, No. 8 among truckload carriers and No. 32 on the TT logistics Top 100.

Banks will continue to support borrowers until the equity levels for equipment recover some more, Anderson said, adding: “The banks are not any better than anyone else at selling equipment.”

Fuel prices have been a saving grace in recent quarters, but a big jump in diesel prices could be a game changer, he warned.

Anderson said the Eagan, Minn.-based fleet has around 550 drivers and 1,000 refrigerated trailers. Bay and Bay expects to trim its head count by 50 to 75 employees in 2025 after cutting 100 jobs in 2024. The shrinkage came after the carrier added 100 roles in each of the prior three years, he said.

Bay and Bay ranks No. 79 on the TT for-hire Top 100 and No. 13 among refrigerated carriers.

Hunt’s Frazier said, however, that there was an asterisk against all these prognostications. The wild card is the speed of action and decisiveness of the Trump administration, which Frazier said was faster than anyone in the U.S. has seen in their lifetime.

J.B. Hunt ranks No. 3 on the TT for-hire Top 100 and is the No. 2 ranked truckload carrier and top-ranked intermodal player.