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CargoNet noted 23 incidents of metal theft in Q1. (vitpho/Getty Images)

The trucking industry continues to confront an evolving cargo theft landscape, with experts signaling the spread of more sophisticated operations during the first quarter.

“We’ve seen [an] increase in fraud and fraud attempts,” said Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at Verisk Analytics’ CargoNet, which tracks cargo theft data. “That scares me because the hardest crime to combat is the fraud. Under the fraud column [are] attempts — contact scams — and even if the attempt didn’t go through, it’s still an attempt. So it’s still a crime.”

CargoNet data found that criminal activity ; the estimated average value per theft increased 42% to $401,000 from $282,000, even as cargo theft incidents overall decreased 10.9% year over year to 824 from 925. Drilling down, the data showed that traditional straight thefts accounted for 451 of the total incidents, while the rest were more advanced strategic-type thefts.

In terms of commodities thefts, Lewis noted that tariff anxiety has compelled criminals to shift which commodities they’re focusing on. Food and beverage was once again the top commodity category with 27 reported incidents during the quarter. Tied at 23 incidents each were metals along with apparel and accessories, while 21 household goods thefts were reported.

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“We saw a slight downturn in the activity,” Lewis said of the first quarter, but noted that there has been a “significant increase” in the second quarter.

“We are starting to see a little bit more specialization around product types within certain areas of the country,” added Danny Ramon, director of intelligence and response at cargo protection specialist Overhaul. “And that really indicates that we’re dealing with quite a few different crews, and all of these crews have very disparate liquidation channels. So they’re all going after what’s most interesting and most attractive to them.”

Overhaul in its first-quarter report found that cargo theft events increased 36% year over year to 505, with pilferages comprising 48% of all reported incidents. The report found that the theft concentrations were primarily centered on California at 39% and Texas at 21%. Overhaul said the reported increase in theft activity indicates more organized operations and expanding geographic targets.

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“The trends have not necessarily changed, we’re still going in the wrong direction,” said Ramon. “California is still the No. 1 state for cargo theft, but there’s been some pretty significant change within that because, even though it’s still No. 1, its lead is diminishing.”

The Transported Asset Protection Association saw record attendance while hosting its T1 National Cargo Theft Summit in May. TAPA Americas Chairman Scott Cornell said the increased interest included numerous discussions on how criminals are shifting and evolving their strategies.

“Through most of my career in cargo theft, there were, at any given time, five or six methods in play,” said Cornell, who also works as the transportation lead, and crime and theft specialist, at the insurance firm Travelers. “As I look today across the industry, and a takeaway from the national summit, is that there’s probably 15 or more methods in play at any one time right now.”

Cornell noted a fundamental shift in cargo thefts that occurred between 2020 and 2022, pivoting from small regional crews focused on straight thefts to more sophisticated, technological and international operations that now dominate. He says this change has caused confusion for companies trying to defend themselves.

“The industry is really starting to see that these methods are evolving quicker than they have in the past — there are nuances to the methods,” Cornell said. “That’s one of the biggest takeaways from Q1.”

On a global basis, BSI Consulting in its Q1 2025 Quarterly Risk Intelligence Outlook reported that 70% of cargo thefts involved trucks. In North America that rises to 80%.

“We see it throughout the United States, really centered around Southern California,” said Tony Pelli, global practice director for security and resilience at BSI. “But we also are now seeing [it] in other parts of North America, especially around Toronto and in Ontario, Canada.”

He added that rail thefts, while accounting for just 8% of Q1 cargo thefts, are becoming more prevalent.

“Rail theft continues to be an issue, once again centered in Southern California,” he said.