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US Oil Exports to Hit 5M Barrels a Day Amid Global Crunch
Asian Buyers Snap Up Cargoes From Atlantic Basin to Offset Loss of Middle Eastern Supply
U.S. Gulf Coast crude exports are poised to reach a record 5 million barrels per day in May as Asian buyers snap up cargoes from the Atlantic basin to offset the loss of Middle Eastern supply.
Crude shipments for April are already inching toward about 4.9 million barrels a day based on current loadings, up from roughly 3.97 million barrels a day in March.
Analysts now expect crude flows to push even higher in May, with increasing numbers of very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, loading from the Gulf Coast. “U.S. crude exports look set to continue the strength we see coming through for April,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, adding that May exports could break the 5-million-barrel-a-day mark — eclipsing a prior record of 4.5 million — as Asia demand remains high.
As the war in the Middle East rages on despite a fragile ceasefire agreement, buyers across the world are grappling with the worst disruption to global energy markets in history. American exports have been critical to help fill the gap, with President Donald Trump pushing for more production as part of his energy dominance agenda.
With peak summer demand on the horizon, if exports continue to surge, U.S. refiners will have to cough up more to keep barrels at home. Gasoline prices have already jumped to the highest since 2022 at more than $4 a gallon, and if pump prices rise further, it poses political risks for Trump’s Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections.
Exports have briefly approached 5 million barrels on a weekly basis,accordingto the Energy Information Administration. However, shipments have yet to sustain that pace on a four-week average, meaning May loadings could mark the first time exports consistently hold near the threshold.
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Roughly 28 supertankers have already been contracted to carry U.S. crude in May, compared with about five typically at this point in a month, according to analysts.
Much of that demand is tied to Asian refiners seeking replacement barrels following Iran war-related disruptions, with some estimates suggesting exports could climb toward 5.3 million barrels a day if current scheduling holds.
The VLCC Asian Progress VI was fixed to load barrels from Occidental Petroleum Corp. from the U.S. Gulf for East Asian bound delivery over May 17-21 at about $19 million, according to a fixture note seen by Bloomberg.
Higher demand aside, the U.S. export system is beginning to brush up against its ownlogistical constraints. Vessel availability, having enough smaller ships to bring cargoes into ports and higher freight costs mean flows may struggle to rise much beyond 5.5 million barrels a day without additional shipping capacity.
