[Stay on top of transportation news: .]
Retail Sales Rise 0.6% in February
But Impact of Iran War Threatens to Derail Spending
NEW YORK — Shoppers increased their spending in February after pulling back at the start of the year, reflecting volatile and cautious activity by American consumers even before the Iran war sent gasoline pricessoaring.
Retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.6% in February, after registering a 0.1% decline in January, the Commerce Department said April 1. There is a concern that Americans, already squeezed by years of elevated inflation, will cut spending further.
Gas sped past an average of $4 a gallon on March 31 for the first time since 2022 and jumped another 4 cents overnight.
The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline hit $4.06 on April 1. That was a dollar more per gallon before the war.
Business at clothing and accessories stores rose 2%, while sales at electronics and appliance stores were up 0.5%. Sales at online retailers rose 0.7%
The snapshot offers only a partial look at consumer spending and doesn’t include things like travel and hotel stays. But the lone services category — restaurants — registered an increase of 0.4%.
U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2026 were $738.4 billion, up 0.6% from January 2026.
🛍️ — U.S. Census Bureau (@uscensusbureau)
TheIran warbegan Feb. 28 and has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international standard, is up more than 45% since the start of the war. The cost of diesel fuel has risen faster than gasoline, driving up the cost of transportation for companies. Economists expect a related bump in inflation, potentially as soon as this month.
Economists had believed that an unusually large jump in tax refunds would kick start spending at the start of the year.But spiking gas prices will take a bite of that money.
READ MORE:Iran War Shakes Up Markets Beyond Oil
“The hit to real incomes from higher gas prices is especially regressive, hurting lower-income households disproportionately, while the lift from tax refunds is more evenly spread,” Samuel Tombs, chief economist at Pantheon Economics, wrote in a recent report. “Moreover, refunds will slow to a trickle by late April, providing little protection if high prices persist.”
Higher gas prices look set to reduce real household incomes by roughly $15 billion per month, he said.
Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, which tracks fuel prices, noted that the way to gauge the impact of gas prices is how much gas expenditures account for a shopper’s income. He said that gas prices are approaching 3% of household medium income.
Fresh from TMC, ATA President Chris Spear takes a candid look at what today’s fleet maintenance trends reveal about the broader state of trucking.Tune in above or by going to .
“When that gets up to about 4, 4½, 5%, that’s really when people really start trimming back on some of their discretionary purchases,” he said.
Some retailers are already warning of the consumer impact if gas prices go higher.
Daniel Erver, CEO of Hennes & Mauritz, said last week that the Swedish fast fashion chain expects energy prices will have a “significant impact on the consumer behavior.”
And Darren Rebelez, CEO of the convenience store chain Casey’s General Store, told investors last month that a significant pullback in customer spending is unlikely unless gas approaches $5 per gallon.
