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After the trades at the start of the week, a few additional funds were eyeing the spread on Sept. 16, according to a broker.Ìý (Carina Johansen/Bloomberg)

One trader loaded up on bets that Brent crude will fall below $50 a barrel by the end of year, wagering that growing supply will outweigh geopolitical risks from Ukraine to the Middle East.

Put options equivalent to 10 million barrels of Brent crude oil traded on Sept. 15, according to brokers and exchange data. A buyer of the $50/$49 put spread would profit if February futures sink some 25% by Dec. 23 options expiration from the current level around $68 a barrel.

After the trades at the start of the week, a few additional funds were eyeing the spread on Sept. 16, according to a broker.

The wager reflects growing sentiment among some of the world’s mostÌýprominentÌýenergy forecasters that the oil market will be oversupplied by the end of the year. Global supply growth — split between OPEC and non-OPEC producers — will contribute to a roughly 3 million barrel per day surplus in the fourth quarter of this year and first quarter of 2026, Macquarie Group analysts including Vikas Dwivedi said in a note.

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(Bloomberg)

Benchmark crude futures have mostly traded in a band less than $5 wide since August. While prices briefly traded above $75 barrel earlier this year, they have since slumped, as OPEC efforts to return even more output to the market compounds the threat of growth-sapping tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Still, futures have bounced over the past few days as Ukraine intensifies attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. The prospect of reduced flows from Moscow has led futures to rally while markets take on a gently more optimistic tilt, with calls fetching a higher premium than puts for the first time since July. The initial wager Monday of around $350,000 could be worth as much as $10 million if prices reached $49.

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.