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Fishing boats dot the sea as cargo ships, in the background, sail through the Arabian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz off the United Arab Emirates. (AP Photo)

Oil looks set to test levels seen at the height of the war in the Middle East if cargoes shipped through the Strait of Hormuz take until July to fully recover, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

At present, the market is pricing in a rapid resumption through the waterway, showing expectations for about half of normal flows being restored by May and a full resumption by June, analysts including Parsley Ong said in an April 10 note. However, “a more gradual resumption to 100% of pre-war levels by July might introduce $15 -to $20-a-barrel upside risk to prices,” they said.

Both global benchmark Brent and West Texas Intermediate were just below the $100-a-barrel mark on April 10. From there, a $15-to-$20 rise would result in futures testing the crisis-era peaks near $120 seen in the middle of March.

The war in the Middle East has resulted in the near-total closure of the��Strait of Hormuz, and despite Iran and the U.S. agreeing on a temporary ceasefire, hundreds of vessels remain trapped in the region responsible for about one-third of the world’s oil production. Washington and Tehran are expected to hold talks this weekend, with the status of the route a key focus for both sides.

An estimated 346 energy-related vessels were still trapped inside the Persian Gulf as of April 9, of which 241 were laden, the analysts said. Between them, they carried 104 million barrels of crude and condensates, 1.3 million tons of liquefied natural gas and 5.5 million barrels of liquefied petroleum gas.

With Iran to its north, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to global markets. The waterway is an essential passage for the energy market, handling about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade in peacetime.