FTR: Tariffs Pushing Freight, Truck Sales Rebound Into 2027
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North American Class 8 truck production levels are set to decrease further in 2025 and into 2026 as uncertainty fueled by President Donald Trump’s tariff-focused trade policies cut more deeply into the marketplace, FTR Transportation Intelligence said.
The economic forecasting firm now expects 2025 North American Class 8 factory shipments to total 247,000 trucks, , said Sept. 8 during the in Indianapolis. That’s down from the 288,000 trucks Moyer predicted would ship in 2025 during the same event last year.
Moyer noted that he expects further tariffs to be imposed, bumping against a marketplace he said was defined by, “weak freight demand, weak demand for [commercial vehicles] that we’re seeing, and excess inventory.”
He added, “Fleet confidence is eroding … and subsequently the freight recovery is being pushed back, really into the second half of 2026, [then] improving in 2027, due to tariffs and uncertainty.”
FTR expects third-quarter 2025 output to total 58,000 trucks and fourth-quarter production to fall to 49,000 trucks.
Moyer
The first quarter of 2026 will see truck makers build 52,000 trucks, according to FTR, as part of a gradual increase that will see a total of 252,000 trucks roll off production lines overall in 2026.
Equipment manufacturers also have been scaling back their outlooks. Paccar Inc. when releasing its fourth-quarter 2024 results said it expected U.S. and Canadian Class 8 retail sales in the range of 250,000-280,000 trucks in 2025. Three months later, the company — which builds Kenworth and Peterbilt trucks— forecast 2025 sales of between 235,000 to 265,000 trucks.
Engine-maker Cummins in August said it would will delay the launch of its latest X15 diesel engine for the heavy-duty on-highway truck market until late 2026, citing ongoing uncertainty around the introduction of federal tailpipe regulations.
Order Books Open?
Manufacturers’ order books for the coming year typically open in September. Mack Trucks, for one, has announced that customers can now lock in production slots for the overhauled Anthem tractor.
However, Moyer indicated that there is talk more broadly of delays in opening order books for the 2026 model year.
“There’s definitely a risk of the order season being below expectations, just based on all the uncertainty and challenging market conditions we’re all seeing,” Moyer said. Plus, dealers inventories are near record levels of around 92,400, up 1% year on year, FTR data show. Moyer noted that while on-highway inventory has cleared, rising vocational inventory has kept dealer lots full.
FTR Transportation Intelligence
He added that a freight recession that has dragged on longer than what OEMs and dealers had expected also has hurt sales.
“Tariffs aren’t inherently destructive, but it’s the uncertainty that keeps people on the sidelines,” FTR Chairman Eric Starks noted Sept. 9.
The Trump administration announced 25% steel and aluminum tariffs in February, and doubled them in June. Levies also have been imposed on semiconductors, copper and fabricated components.
Heavy-Duty Truck Tariffs?
The tariff war could hit much closer to home for trucking if the Department of Commerce decides to introduce levies on medium- and heavy-duty trucks and parts built overseas. The agency is currently investigating the idea.
Moyer expects Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick eventually will introduce those tariffs.
“I’m almost 100% certain those are going to be implemented,” he said. “Why else would they be investigating it?’ What’s the point of doing an investigation if they’re not going to do it, right?
“They’re probably following the legal path that they have to, but those are very likely going to happen. And if I had to guesstimate what level they’d be set at, they would probably mirror the Section 232 tariffs on imported cars and trucks, or light vehicles, which are around 25%. So, they would have a material impact on the industry.”
Section 232 tariffs fall under the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, which allows the president to impose duties if the Department of Commerce determines that foreign goods are having a negative impact on national security. Section 232 tariffs cannot be reversed by legal challenge, Moyer noted. Legal actions seeking to reverse other tariffs imposed by the Trump administration continue through the court system.
Truck prices began ticking up in May due to the tariffs on steel and aluminum as well as increases in rubber and tire prices.
Rising Production Costs
Moyer estimates the cost of building a Class 8 truck or tractor have increased by between 15% and 24% overall since the start of 2025 as a result of tariffs. He estimates that raw material costs overall are up 9%-12%. He said non- United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement tariffs boosted costs by 2%-4%, while the 30% tariffs on Chinese goods and various separate reciprocal tariffs boosted costs by a similar range. .
The mix of rising costs and customer fear has compelled OEMs to enact layoffs at manufacturing plants. That started in April with both Volvo Group and International Motors and continued in July with Daimler Truck North America. DTNA said employees would not be rehired until the demand outlook improved and told Transport Topics recently there had been no change since the layoffs announcement.
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