Farmers Say Trump Aid Brings Relief but Not Recovery
Growers Cite Weak Exports and High Costs in Ongoing Slump
Key Takeaways:
- President Donald Trump unveiled a $12 billion farm aid package including up to $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers hit by tariffs and low prices.
- Farmers said the relief is sizable but insufficient amid weak exports, rising costs and declining crop income that federal data shows have pushed bankruptcies higher.
- Growers await details on crop-specific payments as analysts warn the sector may remain in a downturn next year despite hopes for improved trade.
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U.S. growers say the Trump administration’s $12 billion aid package brings temporary relief but is unlikely to kick-start a lasting recovery for the American farm economy.
President Donald Trump on Dec. 8 unveileda package to a key base of support that includes as much as $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers who have been hit hard by his tariff regime and low crop prices.
“This is kind of a Band-Aid — we need more markets more than we need aid,” said Missouri farmer Marty Richardson, adding that he feels like 2026 will be just as bad as this year. “We’re already buying seed for next year and fertilizer, and we’re behind the eight ball.”
It’s a familiar sentiment across the Farm Belt, as farmers have been struggling for years with weak exports, falling crop prices and rising costs. The effects of the president’s trade wars, which have squeezed demand and raised costs further, have left the sector in a state of extended uncertainty.
(Bloomberg)
“I don’t think any of us are big fans of getting subsidized by the federal government,” said, who grows corn and soybeans in Maryland.
“The biggest challenge for us is when commodity prices go down but your input prices go up and then you lose your trading partners,” she said. “So it’s kind of been more than a double whammy on the ag economy.”
Some growers, who are longtime supporters of Trump, are still optimistic about a recovery beginning next year, and farmer sentiment is at the highest level since June on hopes for trade with China. But the fundamentals aren’t pointing to a turnaround anytime soon.
Federal data showson the rise, while income from selling corn, soybeans and wheat crops has. The U.S. Department of Agriculturenet farm income will increase this year, but that is largely driven by government assistance.
Barry Evans, who grows grain sorghum, cotton and wheat in Texas, was seated not far from Trump when the president announced the farm aid Dec. 8. He said timing is of the essence for South Texas farmers who are just several weeks away from planting and need to make plans and secure bank loans.
“Cotton and wheat all depend on export markets, and they are in the tank right now,” he said. “Definitely need this relief.” While he echoed many farmers who say they wish they didn’t need federal aid, Evans said he was grateful for it.
“As a farmer, we can’t control what the markets do. We can’t control what other governments do,” he said. “They don’t all play fair, and so sometimes it’s necessary to have support.”
Many growers were seeking clarity on how much they might get from Trump’s bailout, as the announcement Dec. 8 didn’t include crop-specific breakdowns for aid. Analyst and trader Ken Morrison estimated payments could be as much as about $50 per acre for farmers of crops such as soybeans, cotton and sorghum.
“That’s substantial and would be enough to matter and help out cash flow,” said Ryan Wagner, a South Dakota grains grower. “As far as whether or not that’s enough to compensate for lost export business and a damaged reputation as a reliable trade partner, that’s another question entirely.”
Stress has been particularly acute among soybean farmers after China, the world’s top importer, avoided buying U.S. supplies this year to gain leverage in trade talks. Though China has resumed purchases following recent diplomatic agreements, its commitment has yet to fully pan out.
(Bloomberg)
The reality is that America’s agricultural dominance is dwindling. Trump’s first trade war resulted in China accelerating a diversion of its supply chain away from the U.S. to places like South America. U.S. farmers have lost crucial market share to competitors, particularly Brazil.
“Economics 101: trade wars, nobody wins,” said, an agricultural economist at the University of Arkansas. “We can point at politics, but really for many reasons at the end of the day, China goes, ‘They’re cheaper, I’m gonna buy it from them.’ ”
The difficulty in predicting a recovery in the U.S. farm economy was underscored last month as equipment makers including Deere & Co. 徱ǾԳپԲdzܳٱǴǰ for the year ahead, as farmers continue to hold back on buying tractors, despite Trump’s urging. The president Dec. 8pressuredthe companies to drop prices for their machines, blaming them for driving up costs for farmers.
Richardson, who grows corn and soybeans, said that while he is older and established enough to weather the strain, his sons have been squeezed.
“It’s putting the crunch on my boys,” he said. “They’re, you know: ‘I’m not buying a new pickup or not even going to John Deere, so no use for me even thinking about that because it isn’t going to happen.’ ”
(Bloomberg)
Many believe the U.S. farm economy will continue to be mired in this downturn throughout the coming year.
“This time next year, we’re going to be having much the same conversation about margins for growers, about the potential need for economic support,” said Sam Taylor, a farm inputs analyst at Rabobank. “We could be in a trough for a little bit longer than some people would want.”
Erin Ailworth, Michael Hirtzer and Ilena Peng contributed to this report.
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