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International reported the only increase among the seven major OEMs, with sales rising 4.5% to 1,618 from 1,549. (International Motors)

U.S. Class 8 retail sales in March fell 20% from 2025, marking the ninth consecutive year-over-year decrease.

data showed March sales decreased to 14,952 units from 18,682 the prior year but increased 15.1% sequentially from 12,992. Year to date, sales dropped 20.5% to 40,230 from 50,627 units.

“The industry is finally digging itself out of the hole that it found itself in for the last few years,” said Vice President Steve Tam. “We’re seeing a tightness of capacity and that’s pushing rates up, which is one of the key ingredients that the industry really needs to see before truckers are willing to commit to the purchase of a large asset.”

Tam noted that available loads have increased while the number of trucks in the spot market has declined. The lingering issue was a lack of confidence to commit, but more recently he has seen growing optimism over the freight market outlook for this year.

“That helps to account for some of the sequential improvement that we saw,” Tam said. “What I always mention, or usually mention, is the relationship between production and sales, and the manufacturers have not been particularly prolific so far this year. And one of the reasons for that, I think, is there’s some transition taking place.”

[April N.A. CV OUTLOOK Update] - Class 8 Market Strength Supported by Tightening Capacity and Regulatory Clarity

Read more from the update here: — ACT Research (@actresearch)

Tam has seen more truck manufacturing activity move back into the country from Mexico, resulting in disruptions and slower production.

He said the industry’s current sales pace remains well below his forecast, with annualized, seasonally adjusted sales running about 175,000 units versus his full-year estimation of 225,000, though momentum is beginning to build.

Even as freight fundamentals show early signs of stabilization, broader geopolitical and macroeconomic risks continue to cloud the outlook for fleets, particularly through their impact on fuel prices and operating costs.

The Iran war has become a major disruption to global trade, especially to energy-related shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Tam doesn’t expect the conflict to greatly affect truck demand, but smaller fleets could be impacted if the conflict drags on.

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“Large fleets are somewhat insulated from the issue by fuel surcharges, and those are certainly kicking in,” Tam said. “What’s the bigger or the macroeconomic impact? We saw the inflation numbers came out last week … It was not a pretty picture, and just because prices increased doesn’t mean we were hauling more loads.”��

Omdia data showed sales declined for six of the seven major truck manufacturers. Freightliner, a brand of Daimler Truck North America, claimed the largest market share with 4,535 trucks sold for 30.3% of all sales. Yet this still marked a 37.8% decline from 7,286 the prior year. Western Star sales, also a DTNA brand, decreased 35.2% to 684 from 1,055.

International reported the only increase, with sales rising 4.5% to 1,618 from 1,549.

Mack Trucks sales slipped 0.7% to 1,508 units from 1,518.

“March retail sales improved month over month, although they came in a little lower than anticipated,” Mack Trucks North America President Jonathan Randall said. “A soft freight market continues to pressure fleet profitability.”

Randall said conditions in the industrial and construction sectors are beginning to strengthen, offering near-term support for freight demand. However, soft consumer spending through the first quarter and higher diesel prices continue to weigh on fleet profitability and the broader economy.

“We expect retail sales to keep building month over month as freight demand gradually improves and pre-buy activity picks up ahead of EPA 2027," Randall said.

Peterbilt Motors Co. sales declined 10.1% to 2,587 from 2,877, and Kenworth Truck Co. sales decreased 11.7% to 2,479 from 2,807. Peterbilt and Kenworth are Paccar Inc. brands.

Volvo Trucks North America sales decreased 3% to 1,530 from 1,577.

“The U.S. and Canada Class 8 retail sales totaled 16,719 units in March, which is down [by] 5,000 units compared to the same period last year,” said Magnus Koeck, vice president of strategy, marketing and brand management at VTNA. He noted that the improvement shown from February to March is in line with typical seasonal pickup.

Koeck added that retail sales for the first quarter were 12,000 less than last year and are not on par with the high truck orders the industry has seen since December. Still, he sees encouraging market signals such as manufacturing growth, more stable construction spending and rate increases for contract and spot rates.

“However, carriers are still facing meaningful headwinds, including ongoing regulatory activity as well as continued low profitability,” Koeck said. “On top of that, recent increases in fuel prices are adding another layer of cost pressure. As a 100% U.S. manufacturer, we are well-positioned to support our customers with our new Volvo VNL and VNR models.”

Kriete Truck Centers found first-quarter Class 8 truck registrations were slightly shy of its forecast of about 180,000 units. This comes amid favorable order in-take momentum for the commercial dealership. It’s anticipating an increase in demand each quarter this calendar year as a result, which could lead to an annualized quarterly sale rate of nearly 300,000 units.

“Truck buyers will have to begin dealing with the looming EPA ’27 mandates and commensurate price increases associated with technology compliance,” Kriete Truck Centers President David Kriete said. “Q2 and Q3 should start to feel a little bit more like a major pre-buy year. We are less than eight months away from significant price increases and technology/product changes. Trucks will never be less expensive than today.”