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Class 8 Orders Surge More Than 100% for Second Straight Month
ACT Research Shows 37,200 Units Despite Sequential Decline From February
Key Takeaways:
- Class 8 truck orders surged more than 100% year over year in March but fell 19% from February, according to ACT Research and FTR.
- ACT put March orders at 37,200, citing tight for-hire capacity, aging fleets and EPA 2027 costs as drivers despite higher diesel prices.
- Analysts expect orders to slow after season as backlogs build, while risks include financing costs, policy uncertainty, fuel prices and manufacturers’ ability to ramp production.
North American Class 8 truck orders increased more than 100% year over year for the second consecutive month in March.
ACT Research preliminary data showed orders surged 126% from the prior year to 37,200. But the similarly strong performance in February meant orders declined 19.5% sequentially from 46,200. The results also marked the fourth straight month that outpaced the prior year.
“After one of the best Class 8 order numbers in history in February, it is [a] little surprising March preliminary data retreated, but only slightly, to a still very strong 37,200 units,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “The Iran war poses major risks to the economic outlook, but tight for-hire capacity and a return of the driver shortage have helped insulate spot rates from the negative impacts of rising diesel prices.”
Vieth pointed out that the industry is starting to move past order season, which typically runs from September to March. He anticipates order strength will likely slow amid typical seasonality, with there also being a significant buildup in backlogs since December.
“Q1 orders annualized came in at over 428,000 orders, so we expect to see some trailing off in the coming months,” said Jonathan Randall, president of Mack Trucks North America. “Aging fleets, improving freight rates, tightening capacity and the realization of upcoming increased costs due to implementation of the EPA 2027 technology are all factors driving order strength.”
FTR Transportation Intelligence found Class 8 preliminary net orders jumped 137% year over year to 38,200 units in March but decreased 19% sequentially. This marked the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year growth greater than 20%. The report noted that while vocational demand increased sequentially, on-highway orders notably declined.
“The 2026 order season from September 2025 through March 2026 is now up 15% [year over year], representing a clear inflection from the double-digit declines seen earlier in the cycle,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst of commercial vehicles at FTR. “While monthly variability is likely to persist, improving cumulative order trends and a strengthening freight backdrop suggest demand is becoming more durable and less reliant on short-term catch-up dynamics.”
Moyer is optimistic that these trends indicate that the industry has entered the . He also has seen a more disciplined approach to truck production continue to support backlog growth without leading to excess inventory.
Moyer, too, cautions that risks remain, including the trajectory of the freight recovery, elevated financing costs, policy uncertainty and geopolitical factors affecting fuel prices.
Also, there are additional risks from the surge in orders itself.
“First, there is potential for a [fear of missing out] effect in which fleets rush to place Class 8 orders to secure build slots,” Moyer said. “Second, if current order strength proves fundamentally driven, it raises the question of whether the industry can successfully ramp production to these elevated levels.”
