Auto Sales Expected to Fall 17% This Year
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Vehicle sales in the U.S. are expected to fall 17.3% this year to the lowest level in a decade as semiconductor shortages and other supply chain problems continue to hamper production.
Researcher Cox Automotive lowered its forecast to 14.4 million vehicles, citing production constraints. Despite the lower forecast, Cox believes lower auto sales belie the state of the economy because the job market and consumer demand remain strong.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 think a recession is inevitable,鈥 said Cox Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. 鈥淲e still have pent-up demand in retail. There are people who can鈥檛 get what they want.鈥
The end of the first half of 2022 is within sight. Here's our quick summary of the current economic conditions. Look for our first-half forecast tomorrow. Busy week ahead. 鈥 Cox Automotive (@CoxAutomotive)
New-vehicle inventory has risen so far this year but remains at about 25 days worth of stock. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, dealers were carrying on average close to 70 days of supply.
The only caveat, Smoke said, is that inflation fears and falling consumer confidence could slow the economy.
鈥淭he consumer is close to thinking we鈥檙e in a recession and behaving like that,鈥 he said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e on that thin line.鈥
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