US Oil Rebound Hits Roadblock, Lack of Truckers
Even at $80,000 a Year, Trucking Jobs Hard to Fill
Five years ago, the thought of $55-a-barrel oil would have given Piotr Galitzine heartburn. Now it鈥檚 keeping one of his steel-pipe shops in Houston open 24/7 and fueling a flurry of orders.
It鈥檚 stoking business for National Oilwell Varco Inc., too, with the oilfield-equipment giant for the first time in better than a decade selling more land-based than offshore gear. And it鈥檚 got Perry Taylor on the hunt for truckers to haul fracking sand. Even at $80,000 a year, jobs are hard to fill. 鈥淚t鈥檚 tough,鈥 said the CEO of Agility Energy Inc. 鈥淲e鈥檝e got commitments that are very difficult to keep right now because we can鈥檛 get the drivers.鈥
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Crude is nowhere near its $100-plus highs of recent years, but drillers pounced after it steadily crept back up from the $26 bottom it sank to early last year. And as they tap more and more new wells, the rebound is spreading quickly, and powerfully, to the oilfield-services outfits that were so hard hit during the collapse.
鈥淓veryone is so hungry,鈥 said Joseph Triepke, founder of the industry research company Infill Thinking in Dallas. 鈥淚t鈥檚 like we鈥檙e hanging a steak in front of a bunch of starving people.鈥
That services companies are hopping again with crude worth half what it was three years ago is thanks in large part to technological advances that help explorers to find more pockets of petroleum riches, and to drill faster and frack smarter. That last bit is key in the shale formations that hold the most promising on-land pockets of oil and gas; tapping them requires fracturing the surrounding rock with injections of water, sand and chemicals.
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To be sure, this boom could be fleeting, and some fields are rocking and rolling a lot more than others. The Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico is the hottest because its pancaked layers make it the easiest to drill.
The burst of activity has helped drive U.S. oil output up at a faster rate than during the last surge, with an average 125,000 barrels a day added since September. Now exploration and production spending in the U.S. and Canada is on track to climb four times more than the worldwide average this year.
And Galitzine, CEO of pipe-supplier TMK Ispco, the U.S. unit of Russia鈥檚 TMK PJSC, said he has started hiring again. 鈥淓very time I push that computer button that says 鈥榓pproved鈥 on the rehire, I feel better.鈥 He鈥檚 pushed it roughly 300 times so far in the past four months, bringing the payroll to the highest it鈥檚 been since the start of 2016.
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Galitzine, though, doesn鈥檛 feel comfortable yet. 鈥淲hen we were at $100, to look at $50 would have been very scary.鈥 Now, the confidence $100 used to instill can probably be had at $65, he said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 how much cost has been squeezed out of the supply chain. So $65 is the new $100.鈥
Maybe, but meanwhile the costs of tapping the riches in mile-thick stacks of Permian Basin rock have been kicking up. Companies are paying as much as $60,000 an acre for drilling rights, a 50-fold increase from four years ago, according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd.
Some of the newest, most technologically advanced rigs available for rent from Nabors Industries Ltd., the world鈥檚 biggest land-rig contractor, are commanding more than $20,000 a day, up from about $17,000 last year. U.S. Silica Holdings Inc., the biggest publicly traded sand supplier, is seeing the average price of sand at about $35 per ton, 20% higher.
鈥淚t鈥檚 deja vu all over again,鈥 said Bryan Sheffield, CEO of Parsley Energy Inc., who鈥檚 slated to be on a panel at the CERAWeek conference in Houston on March 7 about the Permian Basin鈥檚 potential.
Can it last? The answer, as usual, will depend on the pesky supply-demand puzzle. The metric Galitzine is keeping his eye on is how much the shale drillers are erasing crude cutbacks from Russia and the 13-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which agreed in November to trim output by 1.2 million barrels a day.
鈥淔or every barrel that OPEC cuts, the American shale drillers are putting on half a barrel. If that remains, then I think we鈥檙e okay.鈥 If shale fields start churning out much more, 鈥渢hen who knows what鈥檚 going to happen to the price of oil,鈥 he said, adding, 鈥淧robably nothing good.鈥
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